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The Age of Consequences (2016)
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[MAN] NUCLEAR WAR COULD QUITE POSSIBLY FINISH OFF CIVILIZATION ALTOGETHER. CLIMATE CHANGE LEFT TO RUN ITS OWN COURSE COULD ALSO FINISH US OFF. THE EXISTENTIAL ISSUE IS WHETHER WE CAN FORESEE WHAT NEEDS TO BE DONE AND GET IT DONE IN TIME TO MATTER. WE ARE ALWAYS IN A RACE BETWEEN WHAT OUR INTELLIGENCE CAN DO FOR US AND WHAT OUR INTELLIGENCE DOES TO US. [REPORTER] DROUGHT AND FOOD SHORTAGE... [REPORTER] A JUST-RELEASED REPOR FROM THE PENTAGON-- CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE CHALLENGES IT'S CREATING FOR THE MILITARY. [REPORTER] THE LATEST REPORT SAYS GLOBAL WARMING IS DRIVING WEATHER TO NEW LEVELS OF EXTREMES. [REPORTER] ...A GROWING THREA TO NATIONAL SECURITY. [MAN] THE PREDICTED CONSEQUENCES OF A WARMING WORLD ARE ALREADY WITH US. [MAN] CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATURAL DISASTERS CAN CAUSE HUMANITARIAN CRISES, POPULATION MIGRATIONS. SCARCITY OF WATER, FOOD, AND SPACE COULD LEAD TO FAILED STATES, INSTABILITY, AND POTENTIALLY RADICALIZATION. SENATOR, THERE'S NO QUESTION THAT ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY CAN HAVE A DRAMATIC AFFEC ON OVERALL SECURITY BOTH IN INDIVIDUAL STATES AND REGIONALLY. [MAN] NEVER BEFORE HAVE SO MANY PEOPLE FLED WAR AND PERSECUTION. [MAN] THIS IS CLIMATE CHANGE FAR BEYOND THE MELTING ICE CAPS. [MAN] GLOBAL CLIMATE CHANGE, WHILE NOT NEW TO HISTORY, IS NEW TO THE MODERN WORLD. IT CAN SIGNIFICANTLY ADD TO THE CHALLENGES OF GLOBAL INSTABILITY: HUNGER, POVERTY, AND CONFLICT. THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ARE FAR-REACHING AND UNPREDICTABLE, DEMANDING OUR ATTENTION AND STRATEGIC THINKING. THE U.S. DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE IS PREPARING TO ADAPT TO THESE 21st CENTURY CHALLENGES. [MAN] THE INTERSECTION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE SECURITY OF NATIONS WILL BECOME A DEFINING REALITY IN THE YEARS AHEAD. WE CANNOT IGNORE THE COSTS OF INACTION AND WE CANNOT LEAVE THESE MASSIVE SECURITY CONCERNS TO THE NEXT GENERATION. WE ARE NOW IN THE AGE OF CONSEQUENCES. [MICHAEL BREEN] THINK ABOUT IT FROM A MILITARY PERSPECTIVE. WHEN I WAS LEADING PARATROOPERS IN AFGHANISTAN, IF 98, 99% OF MY INTELLIGENCE TOLD ME THAT I WAS DRIVING MY PLATOON DOWN A ROAD AND THAT TWO MILES DOWN THAT ROAD THERE'S AN AMBUSH WAITING FOR ME. [GUNS FIRING] I DON'T GET TO SAY, "YEAH, BUT THERE'S THAT 1% THAT SAYS THAT THERE'S NO AMBUSH, SO TO HELL WITH THE OTHER 99%. WE'RE GONNA KEEP GOING DOWN THE ROAD." I MEAN, THAT'S NEGLIGENCE ON AN UNFATHOMABLE SCALE. THAT'S THE DEBATE WE'RE HAVING RIGHT NOW WITH REGARD TO CLIMATE. THE OVERWHELMING CONSENSUS IS WE ARE FACING A MASSIVE RISK. CLIMATE CHANGE IS HAPPENING. WE'VE GOT TO DECIDE WHETHER WE'RE GOING TO ACT ON IT OR NOT. AND THAT CHOICE HAS CONSEQUENCES. [FRANCESCO FEMIA] CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS THE BASIC RESOURCES THAT ARE NECESSARY FOR HUMANS TO SURVIVE AND FOR NATIONS TO CONTINUE. AS WE SEE OUR RESOURCES STRESSED SIGNIFICANTLY, WE'RE GONNA SEE SOME UNPRECEDENTED CHANGES THAT WE HAVE TO PREPARE FOR. THE RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON EVERY FACET OF LIFE. THEY IMPACT ON EVERY FACE OF NATIONAL SECURITY AND OF INTERNATIONAL SECURITY. THAT MAKES INSTABILITY. THAT MAKES CONFLIC MUCH MORE LIKELY. [CHRISTIAN PARENTI] THE FIRST TIME I THOUGHT ABOU CLIMATE CHANGE AND VIOLENCE WAS IN AFGHANISTAN WHILE RESEARCHING OPIUM POPPY FROM WHICH HEROIN IS MADE. EVERY TIME I INTERVIEWED FARMERS, THEY SAID, "PART OF WHY WE GROW THIS CROP IS BECAUSE IT'S DROUGHT-RESISTANT." TURNS OUT AFGHANISTAN IS GOING THROUGH THE WORS DROUGHT IN LIVING MEMORY, AND POPPY USES ONE FIFTH THE AMOUNT OF WATER THAT WHEAT USES. THE KARZAI GOVERNMEN WERE ERADICATING POPPY. THE TALIBAN, ON THE OTHER HAND, SAID TO THE FARMERS, "WE WILL DEFEND YOUR RIGH TO GROW THIS CROP." EVEN IN THAT CONFLICT WHICH HAS THIS ELABORATE HISTORY, THERE IS A CLIMATE ASPECT. IT'S ALWAYS A QUESTION OF HOW CLIMATE CHANGE INTERACTS WITH OTHER PRE-EXISTING PROBLEMS. IF YOU HAVE AN AREA THAT IS ALREADY UNSTABLE AND THEN HAS THE ADDITIONAL CHALLENGE OF SEA LEVEL RISE, EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS, WATER SHORTAGES OR FOOD SHORTAGES OR A DISASTER THAT MAKES PEOPLE MOVE, THEN YOU CAN START SEEING CONFLICT SITUATIONS. IT'S ALL THE UNDERLYING CONDITIONS. CLIMATE CHANGE IS THE STIMULUS OR THE CATALYS THAT CAN CAUSE ALL OF THA TO AGITATE AND BECOME CONFLICT. [SHOUTING, GUNS FIRING] FROM MY PERSPECTIVE AS A FORMER MEMBER OF THE UNITED STATES MILITARY AND 30 PLUS YEARS OF SERVICE IN UNIFORM, CLIMATE CHANGE IS WHAT WE CALL AN ACCELERANT TO INSTABILITY. IT IS WHAT'S CAUSING A LOT OF THE CONFLIC OR HELPING ASSIST THE CONFLIC THAT'S GOING ON AROUND THE WORLD. AND YOU CAN SEE THA ON THE FRONT PAGES OF THE PAPER VIRTUALLY EVERY DAY. [GIRL SINGING IN NATIVE LANGUAGE] [EXPLOSION] [MAN SPEAKING ON DISTANT P.A. SYSTEM] [GUN FIRES] [BREEN] IF YOU LOOK AROUND THE WORLD TODAY, WE CAN ALREADY SEE CONFLICT AND CLIMATE IN PLAY RIGHT UNDER THE HEADLINES THAT WE'RE READING. [REPORTER] THE INTERNATIONAL RED CROSS IS NOW DESIGNATING SYRIA'S DEADLY CONFLIC TO BE A FULL-BLOWN CIVIL WAR. [BREEN] THINK ABOUT RELATIONSHIPS WE DON'T OFTEN LOOK AT. THE CIVIL WAR IN SYRIA, NOW GOING ON FOR YEARS, HUNDREDS OF THOUSANDS DEAD, THE ENTIRE REGION IS IN CHAOS AS A RESULT. [REPORTER] A NEW STUDY FINDS CLIMATE CHANGE EXACERBATED THE WORST DROUGHT EVER IN MODERN SYRIA AS A CONSEQUENCE OF HUMAN INTERFERENCE. [REPORTER] PROFESSOR RICHARD SEAGER SAYS THA A THREE-YEAR DROUGH PLAYED A HUGE ROLE IN PUSHING THE SYRIAN PEOPLE INTO AN ALL-OUT CIVIL WAR. THIS IS THE FIRST STUDY THAT QUANTITATIVELY DRAWS A CONNECTION BETWEEN CLIMATE CHANGE AND THE ONSE OF A CONFLICT. SYRIA BEGAN TO EXPERIENCE A SERIOUS MULTI-YEAR DROUGH IN THE WINTER OF 2006, 2007. AND THAT DROUGHT LASTED FOR THREE CONSECUTIVE YEARS. FARMING FAMILIES JUS CANNOT SURVIVE ON THE LAND WHEN A DROUGH LASTS THAT LONG. [CHENEY] AS PEOPLE TRY TO FEED THEIR FAMILIES AND CAN'T, THEY'VE GOT TO GO SOMEWHERE. [BREEN] THE DROUGHT CAUSED A LARGE NUMBER OF YOUNG SYRIAN MEN IN PARTICULAR TO LEAVE FARMLAND AND GO TO THE CITIES. [CHENEY] DAMASCUS, ALEPPO, ONE AND A HALF PLUS MILLION PEOPLE HAD TO MOVE. [BREEN] THAT HAS A MAJOR DESTABILIZING IMPAC WHEN PEOPLE HAVE TO PICK UP AND LEAVE WHETHER IT'S BECAUSE OF CONFLIC OR RESOURCE SCARCITY. AS ANYONE CAN TELL YOU, A BUNCH OF UNEMPLOYED YOUNG MEN IN A MAJOR CITY IS NOT A RECIPE FOR SOCIAL STABILITY. [SEAGER] NOW SYRIA HAD ALREADY ABSORBED ABOUT A MILLION AND A HALF REFUGEES FROM IRAQ WHO WERE FLEEING THE CIVIL WAR THERE. THOSE NUMBERS COMBINED SUCH THAT THE POPULATION OF SYRIAN CITIES GREW BY ABOUT 30% OR MORE. THAT RATE OF MIGRATION IS ABSOLUTELY CATASTROPHIC. IT DROVE FOOD PRICES UP, IT DROVE APARTMENT PRICES UP, STRAINED THE HEALTH SYSTEM, ALL LEADING TO THE KINDS OF CONDITIONS OF DISCONTEN TO THE ALL-OUT CIVIL WAR THAT IS STILL GOING ON NOW. WHEN WE ANALYZED ALL THE PRECIPITATION DATA WE COULD GET, WE FOUND THAT WE JUS COULDN'T ATTRIBUTE SUCH A LONG AND SERIOUS DROUGH TO NATURAL CLIMATE VARIABILITY ALONE. [PARENTI] THAT PARTICULAR DROUGHT WAS TWO TO THREE TIMES MORE LIKELY BECAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE. [SEAGER] WE OF COURSE DID NOT SAY DROUGHT WAS THE SOLE CAUSE OF THE SYRIAN CIVIL WAR. IT'S THE CONFLUENCE OF MULTIPLE CAUSES COMING IN, WITH CLIMATE BEING ONE OF THEM. [FEMIA] CLIMATE CHANGE IS ALL ABOUT THE WATER. SO WE HAVE CLIMATE CHANGE LEADING TO RAINFALL VARIABILITY. WE DON'T NECESSARILY KNOW WHEN THE WATER IS GONNA COME. WE CAN'T PREDIC THAT WE'RE GONNA GE THE SAME AMOUNT OF WATER AS WE USED TO GET, AND THAT IS GOING TO HAVE A HUGE IMPAC ON WHETHER OR NO WE CAN GROW FOOD. SO IN THE CASE OF SYRIA, WE'RE TALKING ABOU HOW CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS WATER RESOURCES, HOW THAT IMPACTS FOOD RESOURCES, AND WHAT THAT MEANS FOR WHAT PEOPLE DO FOR A LIVING, WHETHER IT'S FARM, HERD ANIMALS, OR JOIN A TERRORIS ORGANIZATION. [REPORTER] THIS IS A CITY DRAPED IN BLACK AND A CITY RAGING WITH ANGER. [REPORTER] THIS IS ISIS, THE ISLAMIC STATE OF IRAQ AND SYRIA. [CHENEY] AS PEOPLE MOVED INTO THOSE CITIES IN SYRIA, THEY WERE UNEMPLOYED, DIDN'T HAVE A SOURCE OF FOOD. THEY NEEDED TO FEED THEIR FAMILIES. ISIL PROMISED THEM BOTH THOSE THINGS DESPITE THE PHILOSOPHY BEHIND THEIR ORGANIZATIONS, PEOPLE WANT TO SURVIVE FIRST. [SEAGER] ISIS WAS PRE-EXISTING IN THE REGION AND WOULD HAVE EXISTED EVEN THERE HAD NOT BEEN A DROUGHT IN SYRIA, BUT ONCE THE SYRIAN SOCIETY BEGAN TO UNRAVEL, EVERY ACTOR WITHIN THAT REGION SAW AN OPPORTUNITY TO TRY TO USE THE CRISIS TO ADVANCE THEIR PRE-EXISTING AGENDA. [FEMIA] ISIS HAS CERTAINLY TAKEN ADVANTAGE OF SCARCE WATER RESOURCES, CREATING LEVERAGE OVER LOCAL POPULATIONS. [REPORTER] ISIS HAS JUS TAKEN OVER A DAM NEAR THE KEY CITY OF RAMADI, SHUTTING IT DOWN AND PREVENTING WATER FROM REACHING TWO KEY TOWNS. THEIR GOAL, TO QUOTE "KILL PEOPLE OF THIRST." [BREEN] THEY'RE SECURING ACCESS TO RIVER TOWNS. THEY'RE SECURING ACCESS TO WATER SUPPLIES, AND IT'S DRIVING THEIR STRATEGY. [CHENEY] WATER BECOMES AN INSTRUMENT OF WAR FOR THESE PEOPLE WHO ARE LOOKING TO TAKE OVER. YOU CONTROL THE WATER, YOU CONTROL THE LIVELIHOOD OF THE PEOPLE. CLIMATE CHANGE IS GONNA IMPAC THE AMOUNT OF WATER. IT'LL IMPAC WHO CONTROLS THE WATER. THAT'LL IMPAC THE INSTABILITY. [SEAGER] THE CLIMATE CHANGE THA WE'RE GONNA BE EXPERIENCING OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS IS WAY IN EXCESS OF WHAT WE'VE EXPERIENCED UP TO NOW. AND I THINK THE SYRIA CASE IS A REAL WAKE-UP FOR WHA THE CONSEQUENCES CAN BE, AND THIS IS REALLY EARLY ON IN THIS GAME. [PARENTI] IT'S IN THE U.S. NATIONAL INTERES TO ENSURE THAT THERE'S A STABILITY GLOBALLY. THOSE ARE THINGS THAT CAN COME HOME TO US. [TIMOTHY SNYDER] YOU CAN ALWAYS LOOK AT SYRIA AND SAY, "WELL, IT'S ISIS," OR, "WELL, IT'S ASSAD." YES, IT IS ISIS. YES, IT'S ASSAD. BUT THERE'S A BACKDROP WHICH HAS TO DO WITH CLIMATE. THAT'S GONNA HAPPEN OVER AND OVER AND OVER AGAIN. EACH TIME WE'LL HAVE A DIFFERENT POLITICAL OR IDEOLOGICAL STORY TO TELL, EACH TIME IT'LL BE TRUE, AND EACH TIME THE UNDERLYING FACTOR WILL BE CLIMATE. [BURKE] WHEN YOU TALK ABOU CLIMATE CHANGE, IT'S A NATIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGE IN THE BROADES POSSIBLE SENSE, IN THAT THESE CHANGING WEATHER PATTERNS OVER TIME ARE GOING TO AFFEC THE WAY WE LIVE. THEY'RE GOING TO AFFEC OUR FOOD SUPPLY, OUR WATER SUPPLY, THE HEA OF THE ENVIRONMENT WE LIVE IN. SECURITY IN THE BROADEST SENSE IS ABOUT ALL THE THINGS THAT WE CARE ABOUT DAY TO DAY. ARE YOU SAFE? CAN YOU FEED YOUR FAMILY? CAN YOUR CHILDREN GO TO SCHOOL? WHEN YOU TALK ABOU CLIMATE CHANGE AS A NATIONAL SECURITY CHALLENGE IN THE MILITARY SENSE, YOU'RE TALKING ABOU HOW DOES IT AFFEC WHAT THE MILITARY HAS TO DO? THE MISSIONS IT GOES ON, OR SUPPORT HERE AT HOME. HOW DOES IT AFFEC WHAT THEY NEED TO BE READY FOR IN THE FUTURE? [GEORGE H.W. BUSH] WE ALL KNOW THAT HUMAN ACTIVITIES ARE CHANGING THE ATMOSPHERE IN UNEXPECTED AND IN UNPRECEDENTED WAYS. I FIRST SAW THE EFFECTS ON NATIONAL SECURITY AND NATIONAL DEFENSE IN SOMALIA IN THE EARLY '90s. THE ESSENTIAL NATURE OF THAT CONFLIC WAS ORIGINALLY CAUSED BY DROUGH AND A LACK OF FOOD, SIMPLY STATED, AND WE BEGAN TO SEE A MAJOR TREND. CLIMATE CHANGE IS ONE OF THE VARIABLES THAT MUST BE CONSIDERED WHEN THINKING ABOU INSTABILITY IN THE WORLD. [WOMAN] I'D LIKE TO TURN NOW TO SHERRI GOODMAN. SHE SERVED AS DEPUTY UNDERSECRETARY OF DEFENSE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL SECURITY. [GOODMAN] LIKE MANY OF YOU PROBABLY NOW, YOU WANT TO WORK ON THE BIG ISSUES OF THE DAY. THAT'S WHAT I WANTED TO DO, SO I WAS IN THE FIELD OF NATIONAL SECURITY. NUCLEAR WEAPONS AND ARMS CONTROL WERE THE BIG CHALLENGES, BUT IT WAS ACTUALLY DURING AN ERA WHEN ENVIRONMENTAL ISSUES BEGAN TO BE IMPLEMENTED IN PLACES LIKE THE DEFENSE DEPARTMENT. AT THE TURN OF THE CENTURY, THERE BEGAN TO BE RECOGNITION THAT THERE WAS A NEXUS BETWEEN WHAT'S HAPPENING IN CLIMATE CHANGE AND NATIONAL SECURITY. WE'VE SEEN THIS ESTIMATION OF CLIMATE CHANGE AS A SIGNIFICANT RISK SINCE THE EARLY DAYS OF THE GEORGE W. BUSH ADMINISTRATION. THE VERY FIRST REPORT FROM THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE WAS IN 2003 AND IDENTIFIED THE POTENTIAL NATIONAL SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF ABRUPT CLIMATE CHANGE. I WAS ASKED TO TAKE ON THIS CHALLENGE DIRECTLY IN ABOUT THE 2006 TIME FRAME, AND SO I GATHERED THE NATION'S LEADING RETIRED MILITARY OFFICERS. AS A GROUP, WE ARE NOT YOUR TRADITIONAL ENVIRONMENTALISTS. CNA's MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD IS A GROUP OF SENIOR RETIRED ADMIRALS AND GENERALS FROM ALL FIVE SERVICES THA HAVE CHANGED THE CONVERSATION. THE VIEW OF THE MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD IS THAT WE CAN'T WAIT UNTIL WE HAVE ABSOLUTE CERTAINTY. IF WE WAIT, WE MIGHT WAIT TOO LONG. [GOODMAN] WE RELEASED OUR INITIAL REPOR "NATIONAL SECURITY AND THE THREAT OF CLIMATE CHANGE" IN 2007. WE REALIZED THAT CLIMATE CHANGE WOULD BE A THREAT MULTIPLIER FOR INSTABILITY. PEOPLE BECOME DESPERATE BECAUSE THEY HAVE EXTREME WEATHER AND THE SEAS ARE RISING AND THERE ARE FLOODS IN ONE AREA AND DROUGHTS IN ANOTHER. FRAGILE STATES BECOME MORE UNPREDICTABLE. [BURKE] THAT WAS DEFINITIONAL. WHEN THAT STUDY CAME OUT, IT REALLY SET A BASELINE FOR HOW TO TALK ABOUT THIS ISSUE. [MAN] ONE OF THE KEY RECOMMENDATIONS OF THE CNA REPOR WAS TO INCORPORATE THE CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATE CHANGE INTO A NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE. [MARCUS D. KING] IN 2008, THE IDEA THAT CAME OUT OF THAT REPOR WAS CLIMATE CHANGE EXACERBATED EXISTING SOCIETAL TENSIONS. SOCIAL TENSIONS AND ECONOMIC COSTS COULD LEAD TO STATE OR REGIONAL INSTABILITY THREATENING U.S. INTEREST. IT COULD CONTRIBUTE TO INTER- AND MORE LIKELY INTRASTATE CONFLICTS. CLIMATE CHANGE AS A THREA TO NATIONAL SECURITY WORKED ITS WAY INTO THE HIGHEST-LEVEL STRATEGIC DOCUMENT PRODUCED BY THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE. [BREEN] THE QUADRENNIAL DEFENSE REVIEW, THE PENTAGON'S BEDROCK STRATEGIC DOCUMENT, HAS CONSISTENTLY IDENTIFIED CLIMATE CHANGE AS AN ACCELERAN OF INSTABILITY OR CONFLICT. IT WAS REALLY THE FIRST TIME THAT CLIMATE CHANGE WAS ADDRESSED AT THAT LEVEL. WE NOW SEE THIS SIGNED OU BY THE SECRETARIES OF DEFENSE. [FEMIA] THE CLIMATE CHANGE ADAPTATION ROAD MAP IDENTIFIED CLIMATE CHANGE AS POSING IMMEDIATE RISKS TO NATIONAL SECURITY. [GOODMAN] 2014, WE FOUND THA THE RISKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ARE CONTINUING TO ACCELERATE AND THAT THEY ARE NOW A CATALYST FOR CONFLICT. [TITLEY] WE'VE TURNED THE CORNER, AND WE REALLY SEE THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS ONE OF THE BIG ISSUES OF THE 21st CENTURY. [BURKE] I CAN REMEMBER ONCE GETTING IN A DISCUSSION WITH A CAREER CIVILIAN AT THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE WHO WAS EXPRESSING CONCERN ABOUT TALKING ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE AND SAID WE HAVE TO USE LANGUAGE THAT DOESN'T, YOU KNOW, OFFEND PEOPLE, THAT DOESN'T SAY THIS IS REALLY HAPPENING. AND I JUST LOOKED AT HIM AND I SAID, "THAT'S INCOMPATIBLE WITH U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY," AND I, YOU KNOW, CITED ALL THESE REPORTS, AND SAID, "YOU NEED TO LOOK AT WHAT YOUR OWN GOVERNMENT IS SAYING AND WORK FROM THAT." [MAN] WE'RE GONNA BEGIN BY RECOGNIZING WHERE ADMIRAL DAVID TITLEY WAS A MEMBER OF CNA MILITARY ADVISORY BOARD. WHENEVER YOU'RE READY, PLEASE BEGIN. [TITLEY] I'M HERE TODAY NOT ONLY REPRESENTING MY VIEWS ON SECURITY IMPLICATIONS OF CLIMATE CHANGE, BUT ON THE COLLECTIVE WISDOM OF 16 ADMIRALS AND GENERALS. SIR, OUR COLLECTIVE, BOTTOM-LINE JUDGMEN IS THAT CLIMATE CHANGE IS AN ACCELERATING RISK TO OUR NATION'S FUTURE. THESE SERIOUS IMPACTS TO OUR SECURITY WILL ONLY CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN BOTH FREQUENCY AND CONSEQUENCE. FAILURE TO THINK ABOU HOW CLIMATE CHANGE MIGHT IMPACT OUR GLOBALLY INTERCONNECTED SYSTEMS AND ALL ELEMENTS OF U.S. POWER AND SECURITY IS FRANKLY A FAILURE OF IMAGINATION. [LEON FUERTH] THERE'S A TENDENCY TO SEPARATE THINKING ABOUT DOMESTIC EVENTS FROM INTERNATIONAL EVENTS AS IF THAT WAS A REAL BARRIER. WHAT WE DO IN THIS COUNTRY HAS A STRONG IMPACT ON PEOPLE ELSEWHERE IN THE WORLD AND VICE VERSA. SO YOU REALLY HAVE TO START LOOKING AT RECIPROCAL INTERACTIONS BETWEEN EVENTS IN DIFFERENT PARTS OF THE WORLD. WHEN IT COMES TO SOMETHING LIKE CLIMATE CHANGE, YOU BEGIN TO WORRY ABOUT PHENOMENA THAT YOU WEREN'T COUNTING ON KICKING IN AT SOME INDETERMINATE LEVEL. [REPORTER] RUSSIA IS ON FIRE. MORE THAN 500 WILDFIRES RAGING ACROSS THE DROUGHT-PLAGUED COUNTRY. [REPORTER] THE HEAT WAVE HAS RAVAGED FARM LAND AND DESTROYED CROPS OVER AN AREA THE SIZE OF PORTUGAL. [REPORTER] THIS DISASTER COULD DESTROY ONE OF THE NATION'S BIGGEST EXPORTS, WHEAT. [FEMIA] IN 2010, THERE WAS A MAJOR DROUGH WHICH LED TO HEAT WAVES IN RUSSIA AND UKRAINE AND IN CHINA, WHICH REALLY DEVASTATED THE WHEAT CROP IN THOSE COUNTRIES. [REPORTER] IT'S THE WORST DROUGH IN 200 YEARS. CHINA'S IN A CRISIS, BUT THIS IS ONE FOR THE WORLD TO WATCH. [REPORTER] COMMODITY TRADERS HAVE REACTED TO THE FIRES AND DROUGH BY PUSHING UP THE PRICE OF WHEA TO A 23-MONTH HIGH. [FEMIA] CHINA, RUSSIA STARTED BUYING A LOT OF WHEA ON THE GLOBAL FOOD MARKET, DROVE THE PRICES UP SIGNIFICANTLY. [SEAGER] BECAUSE FOOD IS TRADED GLOBALLY, FOOD PRICES CAN BE INFLUENCED BY WHAT'S GOING ON ALL OVER THE WORLD. IF YOU ARE BUYING BREAD IN DAMASCUS OR IN CAIRO, THAT GRAIN HAS BEEN TRADED ON AN INTERNATIONAL MARKET, SO IT IS SENSITIVE TO CLIMATE FLUCTUATIONS FROM KANSAS, THE SOUTHERN AUSTRALIA, AND IN URUGUAY AND ARGENTINA. WHAT HAPPENS GLOBALLY MATTERS. [SNYDER] GLOBALIZATION IS INHERENTLY UNPREDICTABLE. SINCE AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES ARE ALL IN ONE GLOBAL MARKET NOW, WHAT CHINA DOES WHEN IT PANIC-BUYS IS IT AFFECTS MARKETS ALL OVER THE WORLD. [SEAGER] LARGE SHOCKS ON THE GLOBAL FOOD SUPPLY WILL ALWAYS AFFEC THE MOST VULNERABLE PEOPLE, BECAUSE WHEN THE PRICES ARE BEING DETERMINED INTERNATIONALLY, THE FOOD WILL GO TO THOSE PEOPLE WHO HAVE THE MOST MONEY. INEVITABLY, THE POORER OF THE WORLD WILL BE THE ONES WHO BEAR THE BRUNT OF ANY SHORTFALL. [FEMIA] NOW, EGYPT IS ONE OF THOSE COUNTRIES THAT'S HEAVILY DEPENDEN ON THE GLOBAL FOOD MARKET. [REPORTER] WITH A POPULATION OF MORE THAN 80 MILLION, THE DEMAND FOR DAILY BREAD IS HIGH. IT HAS MADE EGYPT THE WORLD'S LARGEST IMPORTER OF WHEAT. IN A NUMBER OF AREAS AROUND THE COUNTRY, THE PRICE OF WHEA WENT UP 300%. [REPORTER] IN A COUNTRY THAT HAS TO IMPOR MORE THAN HALF THE WHEAT IT NEEDS, FLOUR HAS STARTED TO LOOK LIKE GOLD DUST. RUSSIA STOPPED EXPORTING WHEA TO THE MIDDLE EAS DURING THAT PERIOD. [TRANSLATOR] DUE TO ABNORMALLY HIGH TEMPERATURES AND DROUGHT, I BELIEVE IT IS REASONABLE TO INTRODUCE A TEMPORARY BAN ON GRAIN AND WHEAT PRODUCT EXPORTS FROM THE TERRITORY OF THE RUSSIAN FEDERATION. WHEN THEY CUT THAT WHEAT OFF, THINGS BECAME VERY UNSTABLE. [CROWD CHANTING] [REPORTER] THIS IS WHA POPULAR UPRISING LOOKS LIKE. [REPORTER] PROTESTERS DEMANDING BREAD AND FREEDOM AND CALLING FOR GOVERNMEN OFFICIALS TO STEP DOWN. [TITLEY] IF YOU EITHER DON'T HAVE FOOD OR YOU HAVE FOOD BUT NOW YOU HAVE TO PAY A WHOLE LOT MORE FOR I AND YOU DON'T HAVE THAT DISPOSABLE INCOME, IT BECOMES A HUGE THREAT. YOU'RE PROBABLY GONNA DO SOMETHING ABOUT IT. [REPORTER] THESE PROTESTS SEEM TO BE A KIND OF CHAIN REACTION ACROSS THE MIDDLE EAST. [REPORTER] FOR DECADES, ANGER HAS SIMMERED THROUGHOUT THE ARAB WORLD-- ANGER OVER CORRUPT GOVERNMENTS, POVERTY, AND A LACK OF FREEDOM. IT'S NOT JUST THIS VERY SIMPLE "IF A, THEN B." CLIMATE CHANGE CAN BE ONE OF THE CAUSES IN KIND OF A CHAIN OF EVENTS SCENARIO LIKE IN THE ARAB SPRING THAT EXACERBATES AN ALREADY VOLATILE POLITICAL SITUATION. [REPORTER] CENTRAL CAIRO, A BATTLEFIELD. [REPORTER] BULLETS WERE FLYING AROUND TAHRIR SQUARE. [CLATTERING, SCREAMING] [REPORTER] PROTESTERS LOOTED WEAPONS AND TURNED THEM ON POLICE. [PARENTI] THE SUDDEN SHOCKS OF CLIMATE CHANGE CAN LEAD TO DISRUPTIONS AND COLLAPSES. SO YOU'RE GONNA HAVE FRAGILE SOCIAL SYSTEMS THAT JUST NEED ONE MORE SHOCK TO TIP THEM OVER THE EDGE INTO A DIFFERENT CONFIGURATION, INTO SOCIAL BREAKDOWN, INTO WAR. [CROWD SHOUTING, HORNS HONKING] [SNYDER] WE HAVE HAD, FOR A COUPLE OF GENERATIONS, A SENSE THAT FOOD IS NOT PART OF POLITICS. THIS IS SHORT-TERM, I'M AFRAID. THE PROBLEMS THAT WE'RE HAVING NOW ARE UNFORTUNATELY A SMALL FORE TASTE OF WHAT CAN HAPPEN BECAUSE OF THE INTERDEPENDENCE OF CLIMATE, ECONOMICS, AND POLITICS. IT'S GENERALLY THE CASE THAT ALL SOCIETIES SEEM TO HAVE TROUBLE THINKING ABOUT THE MIDDLE AND THE LONG-TERM FUTURE. SINCE THERE IS A HISTORY OF CATASTROPHE, WHEN WE LOOK AT OURSELVES IN THE PRESENT DAY, HISTORY IS THE ONLY OPPORTUNITY THAT WE HAVE FOR PERSPECTIVE. [SOLOMON HSIANG] WHEN WE LOOK BACK INTO THE HISTORICAL RECORD, WE ACTUALLY SEE THA THE COLLAPSE OF CIVILIZATIONS, PLACES LIKE ANGKOR WAT, WHERE WHOLE POLITICAL SYSTEMS CRUMBLED, THOSE THINGS SEEM TO HAVE OCCURRED RIGHT AT THE SAME TIME THAT REALLY LARGE-SCALE GLOBAL CLIMATIC CHANGES WERE OCCURRING. THE TONG DYNASTY AND THE CLASSIC MAYA CIVILIZATION COLLAPSED AT ALMOS EXACTLY THE SAME TIME ON OPPOSITE SIDES OF THE PACIFIC OCEAN. THERE WAS THIS LARGE-SCALE EVEN THAT LED TO SYSTEMATIC DRYING AND WARMING THROUGHOUT BOTH OF THESE REGIONS, AND TWO GREA CIVILIZATIONS FELL. THERE WAS A REALLY COHERENT, VIVID PICTURE ABOUT HOW HUMAN SOCIETY AROUND THE WORLD AND THROUGHOUT TIME HAS BEEN INTERACTING WITH THE CLIMATE. ANYWHERE WE LOOK, WE SEE THE SAME THING. IT'S PROBABLY ONE OF THE MOS REPEATED FINDINGS IN THE LAST SEVERAL YEARS IN THE FIELD. [SNYDER] PAST SOCIETIES COULD OBSERVE CROP FAILURE, BUT THEY DIDN'T KNOW HOW TO EXPLAIN IT. WHAT GIVES US A CHANCE IS THAT WE CAN OBSERVE NOT ONLY LOCAL SYMPTOMS OF A PROBLEM LIKE CROP FAILURE. WE CAN ALSO OBSERVE THE ENTIRE GLOBE AND DRAW CONCLUSIONS. THE QUESTION IS WHETHER WE DECIDE WE'RE GONNA DO THAT OR NOT. TODAY I WANT TO SPEAK TO YOU ABOUT THE NATIONAL SECURITY RISKS POSED BY A CHANGING CLIMATE. JUST LAST MONTH, THE ADMINISTRATION ISSUED ITS 2015 NATIONAL SECURITY STRATEGY. THE STRATEGY INCLUDES CLIMATE CHANGE AS ONE OF EIGH TOP STRATEGIC RISKS ALONG WITH A CATASTROPHIC ATTACK ON THE UNITED STATES SOIL AND THE PROLIFERATION OF WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. CLIMATE CHANGE, ONCE CONSIDERED AN ISSUE FOR A DISTANT FUTURE, HAS MOVED FIRMLY INTO THE PRESENT. WE SAW THIS DRAMATICALLY HAPPEN HERE IN THE UNITED STATES WITH SUPER STORM SANDY. THE STORM SURGE WENT OVER A 12 1/2 FOOT WALL PROTECTING A ELECTRICAL SYSTEM AND IMMEDIATELY PLUNGED LOWER MANHATTAN INTO DARKNESS. WITHOUT ELECTRICITY, OUR TRANSPORTATION AND HEALTH SECTORS BEGAN TO COLLAPSE. WE CAN SEE FROM EVENTS OVER THE LAST FEW YEARS THE INCREASING NOT ONLY SEVERITY OF NATURAL DISASTERS, BUT THE UNPREDICTABILITY OF THEIR CONSEQUENCES. AS OUR WORLD BECOMES MORE INTERCONNECTED, AS DISASTERS HAPPEN IN DIFFEREN AND UNPREDICTABLE WAYS, THEY CAUSE CASCADING IMPACTS THROUGH OUR COMMUNITIES, THROUGH OUR SOCIETIES, THROUGH OUR INFRASTRUCTURE. THE POTENTIAL FOR WHAT WE CALL CASCADING DISASTERS ARE MUCH CLOSER TO HOME. WE'RE SEEING IN THE WES OF THE UNITED STATES UNPRECEDENTED DROUGHT... WHICH SPARKS FOREST FIRES. AT THE SAME TIME, WE MIGHT NEED TO BE RESPONDING TO INCREASED ACTIVITY IN THE ARCTIC. WE MIGHT BE SEEING SEA LEVEL RISE IN FLORIDA AND ON THE EAST COAS INTERACT WITH MAJOR STORMS THAT MIGHT BECOME MORE INTENSE. AND AS WE GO FORWARD AS THE CLIMATE CHANGES, WE MIGHT SEE THOSE THINGS STAR TO HAPPEN SIMULTANEOUSLY. ARE WE READY TO DEAL WITH MULTIPLE DISASTERS AT THE SAME TIME WITHIN THE UNITED STATES? THAT'S AN OPEN QUESTION. WE'VE ALSO GOT TO THINK ABOU THE SECURITY OF OUR BASES AT HOME. NORFOLK, VIRGINIA, IS WHERE THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE U.S. NAVY'S ATLANTIC COMBAT CAPABILITY IS BASED. IT'S ALSO AT EXTREME RISK OF SEA LEVEL RISE. [SEN. TIM KAINE] THE HAMPTON ROADS REGION OF MY STATE IS HOME TO THE LARGEST NAVAL INSTALLATION IN THE WORLD, NAVAL STATION NORFOLK. STUDIES SHOW THAT THE MAIN NORFOLK ROAD INTO THE LARGEST NAVAL BASE IN THE WORLD BY 2040 WILL BE INUNDATED BY DAILY TIDES, NOT EVEN STORM SURGES. [CHENEY] THEY'RE ALREADY RAISING THE LEVEL OF THE PIERS. AT THE LEVEL THEY'RE AT, THEY'RE NOT GONNA BE ABLE TO SERVICE THE SHIPS THAT ARE COMING IN. THIS IS OUR LARGES NAVAL BASE IN THE WORLD. [BREEN] THERE'S SERIOUS CONSIDERATIONS HERE. THE WELFARE OF NORFOLK HAS GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS BECAUSE OF THE POWER THAT IS PROJECTED FROM THAT PLACE AROUND THE WORLD. [CHENEY] IT'S NOT JUST THE CASE WHERE YOU'LL DEPLOY THESE FORCES IN A PARTICULAR CONFLICT, BUT YOU'LL ALSO HAVE TO DEPLOY THEM TO RESPOND TO CATASTROPHIC WEATHER EVENTS, AND THE PRIME EXAMPLE THAT I USE IS TYPHOON HAIYAN IN THE PHILIPPINES. WE SENT SOME 14,000 SOLDIERS, SAILORS, AIRMEN, AND MARINES IN RESPONSE TO THAT CATASTROPHIC EVENT. WE WERE THE ONLY COUNTRY THAT'S CAPABLE OF DOING THAT, OF DEPLOYING THAT AMOUNT OF FORCES, THAT AMOUNT OF DISTANCE. [TITLEY] AS THE SEA LEVELS RISE, AS THE STORM SURGES INCREASE, AS THE RAIN RATES INCREASE, IT THEN BECOMES A CAPACITY ISSUE. HOW MUCH OF THAT CAN YOU DO BEFORE YOU START IMPACTING OTHER MISSIONS? [BREEN] EVERY TWO WEEKS THE U.S. MILITARY NOW IS GETTING A DISASTER RESPONSE. SO THOSE SAME SAILORS LEAVE NORFOLK, VIRGINIA, CHALLENGED BY CLIMATE CHANGE, CHALLENGED BY SEA LEVEL RISE, SAIL HALFWAY AROUND THE WORLD, RESPOND TO A SERIES OF DISASTERS THAT ARE RELATED TO EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS IN THE HEAVILY POPULATED PACIFIC RIM, AND ON THE WAY HOME THEY MAY STEAM THROUGH THE MIDDLE EAS WHERE A CIVIL WAR IN SYRIA AND NOW IN OTHER PARTS OF THE REGION CONTINUES TO RAGE, THAT IN MANY WAYS WAS ACCELERATED BY A DROUGH THAT WAS WORSE BECAUSE OF CLIMATE CHANGE. SO THEY'RE SEEING THE IMPACTS OF THIS FROM THE TIME THEY'D GET ON THE BOA AND GO ON THE DEPLOYMEN TO THE TIME THEY GET HOME. WE'RE GONNA HAVE TO MAKE AN INCREASINGLY DIFFICUL SERIES OF CHOICES. WE'RE ALREADY MAKING THOSE CHOICES ABOUT WHERE TO GO AND WHERE TO USE RESOURCES, WHEN TO RESPOND AND WHEN NOT TO. [REPORTER] 80% OF NEW ORLEANS UNDERWATER RIGHT NOW. I SAID, "WE WAS PLANNING ON LEAVING TOMORROW IF WE COULD." THERE'S NO QUESTION THAT COMMUNITIES THAT HAVE FEWER RESOURCES ARE GOING TO SUFFER MORE. IF YOU LOOK IN THIS COUNTRY, THE EFFECTS ARE GOING TO BE UNEVEN. SOME PLACES ARE GOING TO EXPERIENCE MORE DRAMATIC EFFECTS THAN OTHERS. [REPORTER] PEOPLE TRAPPED IN BUILDINGS THAT HAVE COME DOWN AROUND THEM. THEY HAVE MADE DESPERATE CALLS TO 911 ASKING FOR HELP, ASKING FOR RESCUE, BUT THE RESCUERS CAN'T GET OUT. [REPORTER] PEOPLE ARE NOW LIVING IN PARKING GARAGES. OTHERS PICKED UP WHAT THEY COULD AND MOVED TO HIGHER GROUND ON THE INTERSTATE, REFUGEES IN THEIR OWN HOME TOWN. [WOMAN] WE DON'T HAVE TRANSPORTATION. I MEAN, WE LIVING PAYCHECK TO PAYCHECK. IT AIN'T LIKE WE'RE JUST ABLE TO GET UP AND JUST LEAVE. [REPORTER] THOSE PEOPLE WHO IGNORED THE EVACUATION ORDERS ARE SIMPLY GOING TO HAVE TO WAI AND RESCUE THEMSELVES. [REPORTER] THOUSANDS OF EVACUEES SOUGHT REFUGE INSIDE THE SUPER DOME, ONLY TO BE SUBJECTED TO AN UNSPEAKABLE BREAKDOWN OF LAW AND ORDER. [SNYDER] WHAT KATRINA SHOWS IS THAT CLIMATE-RELATED EVENTS CAN CREATE MASSIVE DISTRESS ON A SCALE OF A WHOLE URBAN AREA AND THAT THAT MASSIVE DISTRESS CAN INVOLVE THE COLLAPSE OF STATE STRUCTURES. [MAN] YOU WOULD NEVER, NEVER IMAGINE WHAT YOU SAW IN THE CONVENTION CENTER IN NEW ORLEANS. THEY ARE JUST LEFT BEHIND. THERE'S NOTHING OFFERED TO THEM FOR THE LAST FOUR DAYS. THEY GOT CHILDREN OUT HERE! THEY GOT PREGNAN WOMEN OUT HERE! THEY WON'T EVEN BRING WATER! THEY WON'T BRING FOOD! YOU GOTTA GO STEAL WATER TO DRINK TO SURVIVE OUT HERE. [SNYDER] ONE CAN TRY TO BRACKET THAT OFF AS SOME KIND OF EXCEPTIONAL EVENT, BUT IN FACT KATRINA IS A PERFECTLY NORMAL DEMONSTRATION OF WHAT ACTUALLY HAPPENS. DROP. IF THE WEATHER GETS TO THE POIN WHERE IT CAN BREAK DOWN CITY GOVERNMENTS, AND LET'S SAY IT HAPPENS TO TWO OR THREE CITY GOVERNMENTS AT THE SAME TIME AND FEDERAL AUTHORITIES ARE NOT ONLY UNWILLING BUT UNABLE TO ASSIST, THEN YOU GET HURRICANE KATRINA ON A NATIONAL SCALE. WE WANT HELP! WE WANT HELP! WE WANT HELP! [TITLEY] WE'VE BUILT SOCIETY ON THIS IMPLICIT ASSUMPTION OF CLIMATE STABILITY. WITHIN BOUNDS, WE KNOW WHAT WE'RE GONNA GET. WE KNOW WHEN TO PLANT. WE KNOW ABOUT HOW MUCH RAIN IS GONNA COME. BECAUSE WE BUILT OUR SOCIETY ON THIS CLIMATE STABILITY AND THAT STABILITY IS CHANGING, ALL THESE THINGS THAT WE TAKE FOR GRANTED, THEY'RE NO JUST GIVENS ANYMORE. [REPORTER] ACROSS THE SAHEL, THE CROPS HAVE FAILED. HUNGER IS STALKING TENS OF MILLIONS. [REPORTER] PEOPLE ARE ABANDONING THEIR LIVESTOCK AND MOVING TO WHEREVER THEY CAN FIND WATER. [REPORTER] RELIEF WORKERS FEAR IF MORE HELP DOESN'T COME SOON, MILLIONS WILL STARVE. [SEAGER] THE SAHEL IS THE SEMI-ARID REGION THAT STRETCHES FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ALL THE WAY OVER TO ETHIOPIA. IT'S THE TRANSITION ZONE BETWEEN THE SAHARA AND THE MORE HUMID, FORESTED CONDITIONS FURTHER SOUTH. THAT IS A VERY DROUGHT-PRONE REGION. THERE'S A LOT OF PEOPLE MAKING THEIR LIVELIHOOD OFF AGRICULTURE, AND WHENEVER THERE ARE DROUGHTS, IT LEADS A LOT OF PEOPLE TO MIGRATE. THE SAHEL IS ALREADY A MAJOR CONFLICT ZONE, BOTH WITH ISLAMIC MILITANTS AND ALSO NATIONALISTS. [PARENTI] THIS IS THE HEAR OF THE PROBLEM IN MANY WAYS. CLIMATE CHANGE ARRIVES IN A WORLD THAT HAS ALREADY BEEN DESTABILIZED. [REPORTER] DARFUR, THE WORLD'S WORS HUMANITARIAN CRISIS. MORE THAN 2 MILLION PEOPLE FORCED TO FLEE THEIR HOMES IN WHAT'S WIDELY PORTRAYED AS AN ETHNIC CONFLICT. BUT CLIMATIC CHANGES MAY ALSO BE A FACTOR. THIS IS A REGION WHERE WATER'S GETTING SCARCER AND ARABLE LAND SHRINKING, PITTING ARAB NOMADIC GRAZERS AGAINST THE PREDOMINANTLY BLACK FARMERS. A LOT OF THE VIOLENCE THAT IS NOW ACCELERATED BY CLIMATE CHANGE ACTUALLY HAS ITS ROOTS IN THESE OLDER, DEEPER CONFLICTS. THE DROUGHT EXACERBATED EXISTING SOCIETAL CLEAVAGES. THERE IT WAS MUSLIM AND CHRISTIAN. IT WAS THE HERDERS VERSUS THE AGRARIANS. IN EVERY CASE, CLIMATE CHANGE ACTED AS A THREAT MULTIPLIER. [MAN WHIMPERING] [REPORTER] THE NUMBERS FROM DARFUR ARE STAGGERING. SINCE 2003, AN ESTIMATED 400,000 PEOPLE HAVE BEEN KILLED. ANOTHER 2 1/2 MILLION HAVE BEEN FORCED INTO REFUGEE CAMPS IN NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES LIKE CHAD. [BABY CRYING] [REPORTER] DROUGHT AND HUNGER HAVE MADE COMMUNITIES VULNERABLE. COUPS AND REBELLIONS HAVE MADE IT UNSTABLE. THIS FRAGILE STATE IS NOW THREATENED BY POVERTY AND NEGLECT. [PARENTI] CLIMATE CHANGE UNFOLDS ON THE LANDSCAPE, MAKING THEIR LIVES HARDER. BUT THE POVERTY THAT WAS ORIGINALLY THERE MAKES THE RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE WORSE. [REPORTER] A STAGGERING 30 MILLION PEOPLE ARE THOUGHT TO SURVIVE ON LAKE CHAD'S ECOSYSTEM. BUT WHAT WAS ONCE OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST LAKES HAS IN JUST 40 YEARS SHRUNK BY 90%. [REPORTER] LAKE CHAD, WHERE BOKO HARAM FIGHTERS HAVE LAUNCHED RECENT ATTACKS. [KING] WATER SCARCITY HAS CAUSED MIGRATION AND INSTABILITY WHICH BOKO HARAM HAS BEEN ABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF. WHERE THERE IS ALREADY INSTABILITY, EXTREMISTS THRIVE. [REPORTER] MORE THAN A MILLION PEOPLE HAVE BEEN FORCED TO FLEE FROM BOKO HARAM'S WAVE OF TERROR. [BREEN] WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE MODELING THAT'S BEING DONE NOW FOR NORTH AFRICA, WE SEE SIGNIFICANTLY MORE DRYING. WE SEE SIGNIFICAN PRECIPITATION DECLINE WELL BEYOND WHAT IT IS NOW. [SNYDER] AFRICA'S A PLACE WHERE VERY LARGE NUMBERS OF PEOPLE NEED MORE LAND. AT THE SAME TIME, SOMETHING LIKE HALF OF THE UNUSED ARABLE LAND IN THE WORLD IS IN AFRICA. [REPORTER] IS COLONIALISM TAKING ROO IN AFRICA ONCE AGAIN? SOME OF THE COUNTRIES ON THAT CONTINEN MAY BE THE POORES IN THE WORLD, BUT THE LUSH FARMLANDS ARE THE ENVY OF RICHER NATIONS WITH INFERTILE SOIL. [SNYDER] WE'VE ALREADY SEEN IN THE NOT-SO-DISTANT PAS HOW CHINA, WHEN THERE'S A DROUGHT, WILL PANIC-BUY AGRICULTURAL COMMODITIES. WHAT IF THINGS WERE MUCH WORSE? WHAT IF THAT SAME COUNTRY THOUGHT THAT IT DOESN' JUST NEED TO PANIC-BUY, IT NEEDS TO BUY OR LEASE VAST TERRITORIES? THIS IS A SCENARIO WHICH COULD UNFOLD GRADUALLY WITHOUT ANYONE REALLY SEEING IT COMING. SLOWLY, SLOWLY, SLOWLY, CHINA CONTROLS, AT LEAST LEGALLY, AN AWFUL LOT OF TERRITORY BEYOND ITS BORDERS. WHETHER ONE WANTS TO MORALIZE AND CALL THAT A LAND GRAB, YOU CAN GET A SITUATION WHERE THE LOCAL PEOPLE COULD HAVE ANOTHER IDEA. [SNYDER] IF YOU'RE CHINESE AUTHORITIES, YOU WOULD RATHER HAVE INSTABILITY IN AFRICA THAN INSTABILITY AT HOME. WE TAKE OUR LIFESTYLE AS BEING A FIXED POIN AND THEN IF ANYTHING'S GOING TO CHANGE, IT'S GONNA BE SOMETHING ELSE, PREFERABLY SOMETHING FAR AWAY. IN THE UNITED STATES, ALTHOUGH WE'VE DONE THE MOS TO PROMOTE GLOBAL WARMING, WE'RE GONNA GET HIT BY I AFTER OTHER PEOPLE ARE GONNA BE HIT BY IT. IN ADVANCED SOCIETIES, WE'RE VERY VULNERABLE TO CONFUSING LIFESTYLE WITH LIFE ITSELF. [CROWD SHOUTING] [REPORTER] AS THE SITUATION IN SYRIA HAS DETERIORATED SHARPLY, JORDAN'S ZA'ATARI CAMP FOR SYRIAN REFUGEES IS NOW THE SIZE OF A CITY. [BREEN] AFTER LEAVING THE ARMY I WORKED WITH REFUGEES ON THE GROUND IN THE MIDDLE EAST, IN SYRIA, JORDAN, LEBANON, HAVING SEEN WHAT HAPPENS WHEN MILLIONS OF PEOPLE UPROOT AND LEAVE A PLACE, THE IMPACT IT HAS ON THEM, THE IMPACT IT HAS ON THE COUNTRY THEY'VE TAKEN REFUGE IN, THIS HAS MAJOR CONSEQUENCES. THAT ON A MASSIVE SCALE WHERE WHOLE NATIONS ARE ON THE MOVE MAY BE WHAT WE'RE FACING IN CERTAIN CLIMATE SCENARIOS. [REPORTER] THE WORLD IS IN THE GRIPS OF THE WORST REFUGEE CRISIS SINCE THE SECOND WORLD WAR. THE VAST MAJORITY OF THOSE REFUGEES ARE HOSTED BY SOME OF THE WORLD'S POOREST COUNTRIES. [REPORTER] THIS CAMP IS JUST OVERWHELMED BY THE AMOUN OF PEOPLE COMING HERE. [REPORTER] FOR THE REFUGEES, IT'S BEEN A LITANY OF KILLINGS, KIDNAPPINGS, HUNGER, AND ECONOMIC CHAOS. [REPORTER] THE U.N.'S REFUGEE AGENCY ESTIMATES THE CURRENT TOTAL AT ALMOST 60 MILLION. SHOCKINGLY, HALF ARE CHILDREN. [ANTONIO GUTERRES] WE DON'T HAVE THE RESOURCES TO SUPPORT ALL THE VICTIMS OF CONFLICT AROUND THE WORLD. WE ARE NO LONGER ABLE TO PICK UP THE PIECES. [FEMIA] THE LOSS OF LIVELIHOOD IS DEFINITELY A HUMAN SECURITY RISK. IN CERTAIN SITUATIONS, IT CAN BECOME AN INTERNATIONAL SECURITY RISK. [REPORTER] A DESPERATE SEARCH FOR NEARLY 1,000 PEOPLE FEARED DEAD AFTER A SHIP PACKED WITH MIGRANTS CAPSIZED IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA. IT IS THE LATEST IN A STRING OF DEADLY MIGRANT BOAT SINKINGS. [REPORTER] REFUGEES FLEEING ISIS AND OTHER MILITANTS TRYING DESPERATELY TO CROSS INTO EUROPE. [REPORTER] ITALY'S COAST GUARD AND NAVY RESCUED 11,000 PEOPLE FROM THE MEDITERRANEAN IN THE LAST WEEK ALONE. EUROPE IS SUFFERING A MAJOR MIGRATION CRISIS BECAUSE OF THE CONFLICTS IN SYRIA, THE WIDER MIDDLE EAST, AND EAST AFRICA. [REPORTER] THEY'VE BEEN ARRIVING BY THE BOATLOADS ON EUROPEAN SHORES DAILY. NOW THE HEAD OF THE U.N.'S REFUGEE AGENCY IS CALLING THE MIGRANT CRISIS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN TOTAL CHAOS. [CHENEY] THEY'RE WILLING TO RISK THEIR LIVES AND THEIR FAMILY LIVES TO GET TO EUROPE. THAT'S PRETTY DESPERATE. [SHOUTING] [REPORTER] IT'S A REFUGEE CRISIS WITH NO PRECEDEN IN THE EUROPEAN UNION'S HISTORY. [REPORTER] AS THEIR NUMBERS SPIRAL ALONG WITH THE DEATH COUNT, EUROPE IS UNDER ACUTE PRESSURE TO ACT. [REPORTER] TENSIONS ARE AT BOILING POINT. [REPORTER] MACEDONIA CLOSED ITS BORDER. SPECIAL FORCES FIRED STUN GRENADES INTO THE CROWD. [REPORTER] THE E.U.'s RESPONSE HAS BEEN CRITICIZED AS AT BES INCOHERENT AND AT WORS CALLOUS AND INHUMANE. [MAN] WE'RE GONNA PUT IN MORE FENCING, MORE RESOURCES. [PARENTI] THE POLITICS OF THE ARMED LIFEBOA REFERS TO AN ACKNOWLEDGEMEN THAT, YES, THERE IS A CRISIS, BUT, NO, WE ARE NO ALL IN IT TOGETHER. WE HAVE TO KEEP THE VICTIMS OF THIS CRISIS OU SO WE CAN CARRY ON AS BEFORE ON THE OTHER SIDE OF THE WALL. [SULLIVAN] WHAT'S ALARMING IS THE BEHAVIOR OF PEOPLE IN EXTREME CIRCUMSTANCES TAKING THE RISKS THEY DO. [WOMAN SPEAKING IN NATIVE LANGUAGE] PEOPLE IN COUNTRIES WHERE INSTABILITY WAS REIGNING, THEY FEEL THAT THEY HAVE NO OTHER CHOICE. [REPORTER] WITH THE CONTINUING TURMOIL IN THE MIDDLE EAST, THE NUMBER OF DESPERATE PEOPLE WILLING TO RISK EVERYTHING IS EXPECTED TO RISE. OKAY? [TITLEY] WHEN WE REALLY STEP BACK, PEOPLE ARE PRETTY MUCH THE SAME. WE WANT ADEQUATE FOOD, ADEQUATE SHELTER, SAFE WATER. IF YOU HAVE LARGE NUMBERS OF DISPLACED PEOPLE AND THEIR NEEDS ARE NOT BEING MET, THEN THIS BECOMES A POTENTIAL FOR INSTABILITY. [COUGHING] [MAN SPEAKS NATIVE LANGUAGE] [PARENTI] WHO IS A CLIMATE REFUGEE AND WHO IS AN ECONOMIC REFUGEE? IT'S IMPOSSIBLE TO SAY. THE TWO THINGS ARE BOUND UP TOGETHER. MOST CLIMATE REFUGEES ARE NOT DISPLACED SO CLEARLY BY CLIMATE CHANGE. RATHER IT'S A MIX OF FORCES THAT DRIVES THEM OFF THE LAND. [KING] UNDER INTERNATIONAL LAW, THERE IS NO STATUS OF CLIMATE REFUGEE. PART OF THIS IS POLITICAL. BECAUSE IF THERE WERE, THEN IT WOULD COMPEL NATIONS TO ACCEPT CLIMATE MIGRANTS AS ASYLEES. [SNYDER] THE LONGER THAT CLIMATE CHANGE GOES ON, THE MORE THAT WE FEEL IT, THE MORE THAT WE EXPERIENCE IT, PEOPLE ARE GONNA WANNA COME NORTH. THE ONLY BORDER WHICH IS REAL IS THE ATMOSPHERE. EVERYTHING ELSE IS PERMEABLE. [FUERTH] LINEAR THINKING SAYS THAT IF YOU HAVE A CHANGE OF A CERTAIN MAGNITUDE IN A SYSTEM, YOU CAN PREDICT THE CHANGE IN ITS OUTPUT. NON-LINEARITY SAYS RELATIVELY SMALL CHANGES CAN LEAD TO VERY LARGE AND UNPREDICTABLE CIRCUMSTANCES ON THE OUTPUT SIDE. LET'S SUPPOSE THAT THE RATE OF WHICH THE CLIMATE IS CHANGING IS NOT LINEAR BUT IS ON A CURVE THAT'S GETTING VERY STEEP. TAKE THE RATE AT WHICH ARCTIC ICE IS MELTING, THE RATE AT WHICH THE GLACIERS ARE RETREATING. AT THE BEGINNING OF THESE PROCESSES, YOU CREATE A GRAPH. IF I START MEASURING OVER TIME, I KEEP ON DISCOVERING THINGS ARE HAPPENING FASTER THAN YOU MIGHT EXPECT. AND ALL OF OUR OLD PROJECTIONS TURN OUT TO BE EXCESSIVELY CONSERVATIVE. I WORRY ABOUT A DISCREPANCY BETWEEN THE RATE AT WHICH WE SET OU TO DEAL WITH THESE THINGS AND THE RATE AT WHICH THEY ARE OCCURRING. WHAT KEEPS ME UP AT NIGH IS A PROBLEM OF COMPOUNDING RISK. A GOOD EXAMPLE IS BANGLADESH. [MUNIR MUNIRUZZAMAN] BANGLADESH IS PROBABLY THE GROUND ZERO OF CLIMATE CHANGE. THE IMPACTS ARE GOING TO BE MORE SEVERE IN BANGLADESH THAN MANY OTHER COUNTRIES WHERE THEY HAVE SMALLER POPULATION SIZE. [BREEN] IN A CLIMATE SCENARIO WHERE SEA LEVEL RISE OCCURS, ESPECIALLY IF IT OCCURS RAPIDLY, THERE'S A REAL RISK THAT A LARGE PORTION OF THE BANGLADESHI POPULATION IS GONNA HAVE TO MOVE. [MUNIRUZZAMAN] THE SEA LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO RISE IN THE COMING YEARS, BECAUSE THERE IS MELTING AT A FASTER RATE THAN EVER. IF THERE IS A ONE-METER SEA LEVEL RISE, BANGLADESH WILL LOSE ABOU 20% OF ITS LAND MASS. WE ARE GOING TO SEE A VERY LARGE CLIMATE REFUGEE POPULATION. RESEARCHERS HAVE ESTIMATED THE NUMBERS TO BE ABOUT 30 MILLION. THIS IS A HUMANITARIAN CRISIS OF EPIC PROPORTIONS. WHERE ARE THESE REFUGEES GOING TO GO? [MUNIRUZZAMAN] INDIA HAS ALREADY UNILATERALLY FENCED BANGLADESH ON ALL THREE SIDES. [BREEN] A TEN-FOOT, DOUBLE-SIDED, RAZOR-WIRE-TOPPED, WHAT MAY BE THE WORLD'S FIRST CLIMATE FENCE. [REPORTER] IT'S INSPIRED BY ISRAEL'S WALL IN THE WEST BANK, AND IT'S MANNED BY 80,000 INDIAN GUARDS. DEATH CAN BE THE PENALTY FOR CROSSING I OR EVEN GOING NEAR IT, WITH HUNDREDS OF UNARMED VILLAGERS KILLED ALONG WHAT IS NOW ONE OF THE MOST DANGEROUS FRONTIERS IN THE WORLD. [BREEN] THERE ARE OTHER REASONS FOR INDIA TO BUILD THAT FENCE, BUT PROBABLY THE MOST PRESSING AND STRATEGIC REASON IS TO FORESTALL THAT CLIMATE MIGRATION. [MUNIRUZZAMAN] NO FACTOR CAN BE EXCLUDED FROM THE IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE. WE HAVE GOT TO SEE THE CONSEQUENCES OF THE CONSEQUENCES. WE ARE GOING TO SEE MULTIPLE STRESSORS COMING AT ONE POIN AT ONE TIME. STRESS ON THE WATER SECTOR, FOOD SECTOR, PHYSICAL INFRASTRUCTURE, THAT COULD LEAD TO A STATE COLLAPSE. IT WILL BE A PROBLEM OF THE MAGNITUDE THAT WILL DESTABILIZE NOT ONLY BANGLADESH, BUT IT WILL SEVERELY IMPAC ON INTERNATIONAL STABILITY, HAVING CONSEQUENCES BEYOND IMAGINATION. WE DON'T NOW HAVE THE LUXURY, AND WE PROBABLY NEVER WILL, OF SORT OF ISOLATING ONE DRIVER OF A SITUATION AND SAYING, "OKAY, LET'S SOLVE FOR THAT DRIVER." WE'RE ALWAYS GOING TO BE DEALING WITH A LAYER CAKE OF INTER-CONNECTED PROBLEMS. SO IF YOU HAVE A CLIMATE-CHANGE SCENARIO THAT'S SUFFICIENT TO RAISE THE SEA LEVEL IN BANGLADESH, WHAT IS THA TEMPERATURE SPIKE DOING TO THE HIMALAYAN ICE CAPS THAT SUPPLY THE ANNUAL WATER CYCLE FOR MOST OF THE AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTION IN THE ASIAN-PACIFIC REGION? SO NOW YOU'VE GOT POTENTIAL DROUGHT AND FOOD SCARCITY IN ONE AREA THAT'S INTERSECTING WITH FLOODING AND MASSIVE REFUGEE FLOWS IN THE OTHER AREA. WHAT'S THE POLITICAL SITUATION WHEN IT HAPPENS? IF INDIA AND CHINA ARE CONTINUING TO HAVE A BORDER DISPUTE DURING THIS PERIOD OF TIME, THAT BORDER DISPUTE JUST GO A LOT MORE SERIOUS. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT COULD PLACE MASSIVE STRESS ON THE INTERNATIONAL SYSTEM. IT'S THESE COMPOUNDING RISK FACTORS, THESE COMPOUNDING DYNAMICS THAT I THINK OUGH TO REALLY CONCERN US. [FUERTH] IF YOU LOOK AT ISSUES OF WATER FLOW FROM THE HIMALAYAN PLATEAU, THERE ARE COUNTRIES THA ARE ON THE RECEIVING END OF THOSE FLOWS OF WATER THAT ARE NUCLEAR-ARMED. IF THE SUPPLY OF WATER BECOMES INCREASINGLY TIGHT, THEN IF SOMEBODY DECIDES TO BUILD A DAM ON THEIR SIDE, THAT CAN LOOK TO SOMEBODY ON THE LOSING END LIKE AN ACT OF WAR. THE RISK OF ANY CONFLIC IN THE MODERN WORLD IS MAGNIFIED BY THE FAC THAT AT THE END OF A CHAIN OF ESCALATION, YOU MIGHT ARRIVE AT COUNTRIES THAT HAVE WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION. [BREEN] OUR ENTIRE WAY OF LIFE IS BASED ON FOSSIL FUELS. EVERYTHING THAT YOU USE AND TOUCH IN YOUR DAILY LIFE IN THIS HIGHLY-ADVANCED ECONOMY IS MOVED TO YOU USING THAT SINGLE SOURCE. THERE'S ABSOLUTELY A LINK BETWEEN THE WAY WE USE ENERGY AND OUR SECURITY. OIL IS A GLOBALLY-TRADED COMMODITY. EVENTS AROUND THE WORLD IMPACT THE SUPPLY AND THE PRICE HERE AT HOME. WHEN GEO-POLITICAL DECISIONS ARE MADE, THE PRICE CAN GO DOWN, THE PRICE CAN GO UP. MANY OF OUR RELATIONSHIPS WITH AUTOCRACIES HAVE BEEN BASED IN PAR ON ASSURING THE SUPPLY OF FOSSIL FUELS. WE SPEND A TREMENDOUS AMOUNT OF TIME KEEPING THA GLOBAL SUPPLY FLOWING, PROTECTING IT. [REPORTER] THE THREATS ARE BEING RAMPED UP OVER A VITAL OIL SHIPPING ROUTE WHICH IRAN IS THREATENING TO BLOCK. [REPORTER] THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ LINKS THE OIL-PRODUCING STATES OF BAHRAIN, KUWAIT, QATAR, SAUDI ARABIA, AND THE UNITED ARAB EMIRATES. THAT'S ABOUT 40% OF THE WORLD'S OIL THAT'S SHIPPED. IT'S A MAJOR ARTERY. WE SPEND $85 BILLION A YEAR DEFENDING STRATEGIC CHOKE POINTS, PLACES LIKE THE STRAITS OF HARMUZ NEAR IRAN OR THE STRAITS OF MALACCA IN THE HEAVILY-CONTESTED SOUTH CHINA SEA. REAL DISRUPTION WOULD HAVE CATASTROPHIC CONSEQUENCES FOR OUR ECONOMY. ENERGY AND NATURAL RESOURCES CREATES THE ARENA FOR CONFLIC AND DEFINING WHAT THE PLAYING FIELD WILL LOOK LIKE. CLIMATE CHANGE IS IN THAT MIX OF CAUSES. IN SOME CASES, IT'S CHANGING THE MAP ITSELF. [REPORTER] MELTING ICE CAPS IN THE ARCTIC HAVE IGNITED A MILITARY BUILDUP. THE ARCTIC CIRCLE IS BELIEVED TO CONTAIN 30% OF THE WORLD'S UNDISCOVERED NATURAL GAS AND 15% OF ITS OIL. AS THE ICE MELTS, IT OPENS UP RESOURCES. IT OPENS UP TRADE ROUTES. IT OPENS UP LAND CLAIMS THAT COULD BECOME MORE CONTENTIOUS. [REPORTER] RUSSIA IS MAKING A VERY BOLD MOVE, PLANTING ITS FLAG ON THE ARCTIC SEA FLOOR. [REPORTER] RUSSIA IS HOLDING MILITARY EXERCISES INVOLVING TENS OF THOUSANDS OF TROOPS. [REPORTER] IT'S DISPUTED TERRITORY WITH THE UNITED STATES AND CANADA. [REPORTER] MANY FEAR A 21st-CENTURY COLD WAR IN THE FROZEN WATERS. [MAN] I'M HONORED TO WELCOME THREE FORMER SECRETARIES OF STATE. [GEORGE SCHULTZ] WE'VE STARTED A PROJEC ON THE ARCTIC. THERE'S A NEW OCEAN BEING CREATED THERE. THAT HASN'T HAPPENED SINCE THE LAST ICE AGE. THERE ARE BIG MELTS ALL OVER THE WORLD TAKING PLACE. THE CLIMATE'S CHANGING. AND THERE ARE CONSEQUENCES. [BREEN] IF YOU SAY THERE'S NO CONNECTION BETWEEN SECURITY AND CLIMATE, OR BETWEEN OIL AND OUR NATIONAL SECURITY, IF YOU SERVED IN THESE CONFLICTS, IF YOU FOUGHT A WAR IN THE MIDDLE EAST, IF YOU FOUGH IN A BURNING OIL FIELD, YOU MIGH HAVE A DIFFERENT VIEW. [MAN ON RADIO] CONVOY BE ADVISED, BORDER PATROL VEHICLE ON THE LEFT-HAND SIDE. MY FIRST DEPLOYMENT, I WAS A YOUNG LIEUTENAN WITH AN INFANTRY UNIT IN IRAQ SOUTH OF BAGHDAD IN AN AREA THAT WAS SATURATED WITH IMPROVISED EXPLOSIVE DEVICES. IT CAME TO BE KNOWN AS THE TRIANGLE OF DEATH. THAT AMERICAN MILITARY UNI ON THE GROUND IN IRAQ OR AFGHANISTAN HAS GOT TO RELY ON A FUEL SUPPLY THAT COMES A GREAT DISTANCE AT RISK AND COS TO REACH THEM. EVERY DAY, A LOGISTICS CONVOY WOULD HAVE TO LEAVE BAGHDAD AIRPOR AND DRIVE TO OUR FORWARD OPERATING BASE. WE WERE TAKING THE FUEL FROM THE PREVIOUS DAY'S DELIVERY, PUTTING IT IN A BUNCH OF BRADLEY FIGHTING VEHICLES, GOING OUT TO ESCORT THE CONVOY IN WITH THAT FUEL, USING A LOT OF THE FUEL, AND THEN PUTTING THE NEXT DAY'S FUEL RIGHT IN THE BRADLEYS TO DO ALL OVER AGAIN. WE TOOK THIS HIGHLY CAPABLE COMBAT FORCE AND TURNED IT INTO, BASICALLY, A SELF-LICKING ICE CREAM CONE. [MAN ON RADIO] ...IS HIT. ...IS DOWN. [BREEN] ALMOST EVERY DAY, THAT CONVOY WAS ATTACKED. [MAN] NEXT, WE'RE GOING TO HEAR FROM MR. MICHAEL BREEN, WHO IS THE EXECUTIVE DIRECTOR OF THE TRUMAN NATIONAL SECURITY PROJECT. -WELCOME, SIR. -THANK YOU, MR. CHAIRMAN. CHAIRMAN MARQUIS, RANKING MEMBER BRASSO, THANK YOU FOR THE OPPORTUNITY TO TESTIFY TODAY. ALTHOUGH WE FIND OURSELVES IN A CONSIDERABLY BETTER POSITION WITH REGARD TO ENERGY THAN THAT OF SEVERAL YEARS AGO, THE LACK OF DIVERSIFIED ENERGY SOURCES AROUND THE WORLD CONTINUES TO CREATE VULNERABILITIES FOR THE UNITED STATES AND OUR ALLIES. IN ADDITION, CLIMATE CHANGE MAKES OUR CURREN ENERGY SYSTEM UNSUSTAINABLE, CREATING CASCADING RISKS AND IMPACTS AROUND THE GLOBE. THE U.S. SHOULD PLACE GREATER EMPHASIS ON EFFICIENCY ALONG WITH THE DEVELOPMEN OF RENEWABLE SOURCES, AND MORE RESILIEN DISTRIBUTED ENERGY SYSTEMS. THE DEPARTMENT OF DEFENSE IS ONE OF THE LARGES CUSTOMERS IN THE WORLD, SO WHEN THE DEPARTMEN INVESTS IN TECHNOLOGIES THAT ARE STILL VERY IMMATURE, THEY'RE TAKING A VERY LONG VIEW OF WHAT THEY'RE GOING TO NEED IN THE FUTURE. THOSE LONG-TERM INVESTMENTS DO HAVE A GREAT BENEFI OFTEN FOR THE CIVILIAN ECONOMY. IF THE MILITARY HAD SETTLED ON COMPASS TECHNOLOGY AS THE PERFECT ANSWER TO NAVIGATION, WE NEVER WOULD HAVE HAD GPS. SO TO STAY AHEAD OF THE CURVE, WE HAVE TO KEEP INVESTING. [RAY MABUS] AND ONE OF THE THINGS I GET ASKED IN HEARINGS DEFENDING THE BUDGET IS, "IS THIS THE RIGHT TIME TO BE INVESTING IN STUFF LIKE ALTERNATIVE ENERGY?" AND MY RESPONSE IS, "WE CAN'T AFFORD NOT TO NOW." [REPORTER] SECRETARY OF THE NAVY RAY MABUS TOOK PAR IN SIGNING A CONTRAC FOR THE LARGEST BIOFUEL PURCHASE IN GOVERNMENT HISTORY. [REPORTER] IN THE NEXT TEN YEARS, THE AIR FORCE ACADEMY PLANS TO GENERATE ALL OF THEIR OWN ELECTRICITY THROUGH RENEWABLE SOURCES. [BREEN] I'M ENCOURAGED THAT THE MILITARY IS CONTINUING TO CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMEN OF NEW TECHNOLOGIES, BUT I DON'T THINK WE CAN BE COMPLACENT ABOUT THIS. OUR MILITARY IN THE U.S., EVERY MILITARY, IS ULTIMATELY IN THE BUSINESS OF PREVENTING, HOPEFULLY, OR PROSECUTING AND WINNING WARS, AND WAR IS A DESTRUCTIVE HUMAN ACTIVITY. MILITARIES ARE NO GONNA SOLVE THIS FOR US. AN ARMORED DIVISION IS NO GONNA DEFEAT CLIMATE CHANGE. [BURKE] YOU DON'T WANNA TURN TO YOUR MILITARY TO SOLVE WHAT ARE REALLY CIVIL SOCIETY PROBLEMS. THAT'S A DANGEROUS GAME. THEY DO NEED TO UNDERSTAND HOW IT ALL FITS TOGETHER, BECAUSE THAT'S GONNA AFFEC WHAT THEY NEED TO BE READY FOR, BUT THAT DOESN'T MEAN IT'S THEIR MISSION TO FIX IT. [FEMIA] WHAT KEEPS ME UP AT NIGH IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT WE'LL HAVE A WORLD WHERE THE RISKS ASSOCIATED WITH CLIMATE CHANGE ARE SO DIRE AND SO POTENTIALLY UNMANAGEABLE THAT GOVERNMENTS START ACTING IN WAYS THAT ARE AUTHORITARIAN. THAT'S A WORLD THAT I DON'T WANNA LIVE IN. THAT'S A WORLD I DON'T WAN MY CHILDREN TO LIVE IN. AND IT'S A WORLD THAT WE SEE IN THESE SCENARIOS THAT THE UNITED STATES MILITARY PRODUCES. [RONALD REAGAN] WE'RE AT WAR WITH THE MOS DANGEROUS ENEMY THAT HAS EVER FACED MANKIND IN HIS LONG CLIMB FROM THE SWAMP TO THE STARS, AND IT'S BEEN SAID IF WE LOSE THAT WAR AND IN SO DOING LOSE THIS WAY OF FREEDOM OF OURS, HISTORY WILL RECORD WITH THE GREATEST ASTONISHMEN THAT THOSE WHO HAD THE MOST TO LOSE DID THE LEAS TO PREVENT ITS HAPPENING. [GOODMAN] WE SPENT BILLIONS OF DOLLARS OF OUR GDP DURING THE COLD WAR TO REDUCE THE THREA OF NUCLEAR ATTACK, WHICH IS LOW PROBABILITY BUT VERY HIGH CONSEQUENCE. NOW WE FACE RISKS FROM CLIMATE CHANGE THAT ARE ARGUABLY AS SEVERE AND OF HIGHER PROBABILITY, AND YET THERE IS IN SOME QUARTERS A RELUCTANCE TO FACE UP TO THE CHALLENGES AND BUILD A RESILIENT SOCIETY. [GUNS FIRING] WHETHER IT'S THREATS FROM NUCLEAR WEAPONS OR INTERNATIONAL TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS, ANY PERCENTAGE IS UNACCEPTABLE. WHEN YOU THINK ABOUT CLIMATE CHANGE AS A RISK-MANAGEMENT ISSUE, THEN ALL OF THE ACTIONS WE NEED TO TAKE ARE GOING TO BE ON THE TABLE. IF WE DON'T, THEN WE'RE GOING TO HAVE TO MAKE SOME VERY, VERY DIFFICULT CHOICES. [BREEN] WHERE CAN WE MAKE OURSELVES MORE RESILIENT? WHERE CAN WE MAKE OURSELVES MORE PREPARED? WHERE CAN WE ACT NOW IN ORDER TO MITIGATE THE CONSEQUENCES OF DECISIONS THAT WERE MADE SINCE THE INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION? THERE'S A DIFFICULT TRUTH WE'VE GOTTA FACE HERE. AS WE'VE SEEN RISING AWARENESS OF THE PROBLEM, WE'VE CONTINUED TO ACCELERATE OUR CONTRIBUTION. REVERSING THAT MAY BE THE MOST DIFFICUL COLLECTIVE-ACTION PROBLEM WE'VE EVER FACED. [MADELEINE ALBRIGHT] I DO THINK THE BIGGEST THREA IS CLIMATE CHANGE AND ITS NATIONAL SECURITY ASPECTS. OUR PROBLEM IS THA NOT EVERYTHING CAN BE HANDLED MILITARILY, AND THAT WE ALSO HAVE A SHORT ATTENTION SPAN. THESE ARE VERY LONG-TERM PROBLEMS. [FEMIA] THIS IS A WHOLE OF SOCIETY ISSUE. WE HAVE TO ADDRESS I IN ALL OF OUR INSTITUTIONS. THAT MEANS ALL ASPECTS OF GOVERNMENT. IT MEANS THE RESOURCES AND THE POLITICAL WILL. [ALBRIGHT] IT IS A MATTER OF COOPERATING, AND IF YOU LOOK AT THESE ISSUES, IT WILL REQUIRE AMERICAN LEADERSHIP WITHIN A SYSTEM THAT OTHER COUNTRIES PLAY A PART IN. [CHENEY] WE HAVE TO LEAD. THE INDUSTRIALIZED COUNTRIES, WE'RE THE ONES WHO ARE DOING THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE POLLUTING HERE IN THE WORLD. WE GOTTA STEP UP TO THIS. EVERY ASPECT OF NATIONAL SECURITY IS ABOUT MANAGING RISK. OUR POLITICIANS IN MY OPINION SHOULD TAKE A LESSON FROM THE MILITARY. THEY SHOULD START PRUDEN ACTION TO REDUCE EMISSIONS. [TITLEY] CONGRESS WON'T LEAD ON THIS ISSUE, BUT THEY CAN BE LED. THAT'S WHY I CONTINUE TO GO AROUND AND TALK ABOUT THIS ISSUE. WE NEED TO FIND POLICY SOLUTIONS THAT CAN DEAL WITH IT. [BURKE] ONE OF THE THINGS THAT I FIND PERSONALLY REALLY DISTRESSING, HAVING WORKED FOR REPUBLICANS AND DEMOCRATS, IS THAT SOMETHING THAT SHOULD BE A POINT OF CONVERGENCE HAS BECOME SO DIVISIVE. THIS POLARIZATION HAS ALLOWED US TO NOT REALLY ADDRESS WHAT WE REALLY NEED TO DO. RESILIENCE AND IMPROVING OUR ABILITY TO RESPOND, THOSE ARE THE LEAS THAT WE SHOULD BE DOING. THAT'S, IN MILITARY PARLANCE, THE FIRST LINE OF DEFENSE. [BREEN] ONE OF THE FIRST THINGS THEY EVER TAUGHT ME AS A COMBAT LEADER WAS CHOOSING TO DO NOTHING IS A CHOICE. INACTION IS AS MUCH OF A DECISION AS ANY OTHER COURSE OF ACTION, AND IT CARRIES THOSE CONSEQUENCES. [FUERTH] IT'S A VERY DANGEROUS THING TO DECIDE THAT THERE IS ONE AND ONLY ONE LINE OF EVENTS HEADING INTO THE FUTURE AND ONE AND ONLY ONE BES RESPONSE FOR DEALING WITH THAT. WHEN SYSTEMS BECOME INVESTED IN AN OLD WAY OF THINKING, THERE IS A MOMEN WHEN THOSE STRUCTURES START TO BREAK DOWN. THE SYSTEM RESISTS THE IDEA OF CHANGE TO A CERTAIN POINT, AND THEN THE WEIGH OF COLLECTIVE EXPERIENCE SAYS "SOMETHING'S NOT WORKING HERE. WE NEED A CHANGE." I DON'T THINK YOU GE TO THAT MOMENT BY SLOW DEGREES. I THINK IT OCCURS LIKE AN AVALANCHE. AND THERE COMES A MOMEN WHEN YOU HAVE TO KNOW WHEN TO CHANGE COURSE. [SNYDER] EVEN AS WE SPEND ALL OF OUR TIME TALKING ABOUT WHAT HUMANS ARE CAPABLE OF DOING IN A NEGATIVE SENSE, WE DON'T KNOW THE LIMITS OF WHAT WE'RE CAPABLE OF DOING IN A POSITIVE SENSE. WE HAVEN'T FOUND THAT EITHER. THE GENERAL DRIF IS IN THE WRONG DIRECTION. WE HAVE AN AWFUL LOT OF THINGS THAT WE SHOULD BE AFRAID OF. THE WINDOW OF ACTION IS CLOSING. BUT THERE WOULDN'T BE ANY POIN TALKING ABOUT ALL OF THIS IF WE DIDN'T HAVE THE KNOWLEDGE WHICH WE DO, IF WE DIDN'T HAVE THE TOOLS WHICH WE DO, AND IF WE DIDN'T HAVE UNPREDICTABLE POTENTIAL, WHICH WE ALSO DO. [PARENTI] WHAT PEOPLE NEED MORE THAN A FRIGH IS SOME CREDIBLE DESCRIPTION OF A WAY OUT OF THE PROBLEM. [BREEN] ENERGY INDEPENDENCE FUNDAMENTALLY IS ABOUT THE ABILITY TO MEET OUR ENERGY NEEDS FROM WITHIN OUR OWN BORDERS INDEFINITELY. THERE'S NO MORE AMERICAN CONCEPT THAN THAT, AND THAT MEANS TAKING CONTROL OF OUR ENERGY FUTURE AND INVESTING IN ALTERNATIVES TO OUR CURRENT SYSTEM. [GOODMAN] THE FLIP SIDE OF THE CLIMATE THREA IS THE ENERGY AND RESILIENCE OPPORTUNITY. THE MORE DIVERSIFIED WE ARE IN OUR ENERGY SOURCES, FROM A WHOLE ARRAY OF RENEWABLES TO INNOVATIVE TECHNOLOGIES, THE SOUNDER AND STRONGER AND MORE SECURE WE WILL BE. [BREEN] ONE OF THE THINGS WE'VE SEEN IS A WHOLE GENERATION OF VETERANS WHO HAVE COME BACK FROM THE CONFLICTS IN IRAQ AND AFGHANISTAN WITH A VERY DEEP, PERSONAL UNDERSTANDING OF THIS CHALLENGE. WE'VE SEEN RETURNING VETERANS GO INTO THE RENEWABLE ENERGY INDUSTRY, INSTALLING SOLAR PANELS AND STARTING COMPANIES. THEY SEE NOT ONLY THE TECHNOLOGY OF THE FUTURE, BUT THEY ALSO SEE A MISSION. THEY SEE A CONTINUATION OF PUBLIC SERVICE THAT DROVE THEM TO RAISE THEIR HAND AND VOLUNTEER TO PUT ON THE UNIFORM IN THE FIRST PLACE. WE DID NOT END THE STONE AGE BECAUSE WE RAN OUT OF STONES. WE FOUND SOMETHING BETTER. WINSTON CHURCHILL IS ALLEGED TO HAVE SAID THAT AMERICANS CAN ALWAYS BE COUNTED ON TO DO THE RIGHT THING AFTER EXHAUSTING EVERY OTHER POSSIBILITY. WE'RE GETTING TOWARDS THE END OF EXHAUSTING ALL THOSE OTHER POSSIBILITIES. [PARENTI] THE RESPONSE TO CLIMATE CHANGE INVOLVES A TYPE OF INDUSTRIAL REVOLUTION. WE NEED TO LEAVE BEHIND THE TECHNOLOGIES BASED ON FOSSIL FUELS AND SHIFT TOWARDS A CLEAN-TECH RENAISSANCE. THE PATH FORWARD ALREADY EXISTS. [FUERTH] IF YOU LOOK AT THE RATE AT WHICH THE TECHNOLOGY IS IMPROVING, THIS ACTUALLY IS AN ECONOMIC BOON. DOING WHA WE SHOULD PROACTIVELY TO DEAL WITH CLIMATE CHANGE BECOMES PAR OF THE SOLUTION SE TO WHAT WE SHOULD BE DOING PROACTIVELY TO DEAL WITH THE ECONOMIC STRENGTH OF THE COUNTRY. [BREEN] THESE ARE THE PLAYS THAT ARE GONNA DEFINE THE 21st CENTURY EITHER WAY. WE'LL IMPROVE OUR SECURITY AND WE'LL IMPROVE OUR WAY OF LIFE. WE'LL IMPROVE OUR ECONOMY. WE MAY ALSO HEAD OFF ONE OF THE LARGEST RISKS WE FACE. [PARENTI] THE MOST IMPORTANT THING IS FOR PEOPLE TO SEE HOW ACTUALLY TANGIBLE AND, LIKE, WITHIN POSSIBLE GRASP THIS CHANGE IS. [FUERTH] I DON'T THINK THAT HUMANITY IS GUARANTEED A PASS OUT OF THE PROBLEMS THA IT IS CREATING FOR ITSELF. IF WE FAIL, THEN IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WE CAN NEVER AGAIN, AT ANY PRICE, OBTAIN THE KIND OF FUTURE THAT WE MAY BE ABLE TO SECURE FOR OURSELVES IF WE SUCCEED. THE TECHNOLOGICAL MEANS ARE IN HAND. THE WEALTH EXISTS. THE QUESTION ALWAYS IS IS WHETHER OR NO THE WISDOM EXISTS. IN ANY STRATEGIC SYSTEM, TIME IS THE MOS PRECIOUS RESOURCE. IT'S THE ONE THING THAT CANNOT BE REPLENISHED. |
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