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The Big Short (2015)
Hi ya Frank, how are the wife and kids?
You know, shouldn't y'all be considering treasury bonds or utility stocks? In the late seventies banking wasn't a job you went into to make large sums of money. It was a fucking snooze! Filled with losers! Like selling insurance, or accounting and if banking was boring... Then the bond department at the bank was straight up comatose. We all know about bonds... You give em to your snot nosed kid when he turns fifteen maybe when he's thirty he makes a hundred bucks. Boring! That is until Lewis rainieri came on the scene at Salomon brothers you might not know who he is but he changed your life more than Michael Jordan, the I-pod and YouTube put together! Hey gentlemen, let's get some money in here. Let's make some money! What do you say?! You see, Lewis didn't know it yet, but he already changed banking forever with one simple idea. The mortgage backed security. Or... private label mbs you got your average persons mortgage fixed rate, thirty years, boring! Same, small payoff. Right! But When you add thousands of them all bundled together suddenly, the yield goes up, but the risk is still small, because... Well, they're mortgages, and who the hell doesn't pay their mortgage? What exactly is the credit-rating on this bond? This bond gentlemen... Is AAA-rating! This is exactly what the Michigan state pension fund has been looking for! I'll buy twenty million! Oh come on, live a little! Twenty five million! The money came raining down! And for the first time, the banker went from the country-club to the strip-club. Pretty soon, stocks and savings were almost inconsequential. They were doing fifty, a hundred, two hundred billion in mortgage bonds and dozens of other securities a year. And America barely noticed that it's number one industry became boring old banking and then one day, almost thirty years later, in 2008 it all came crashing down! Bear sterns was in a death spiral and the fed brokered it's sale. In the end Lewis Rainier's mortgage backed security mutated into a monstrosity that collapsed the whole world economy and none of the experts, or leaders, or talking heads had a clue it was coming. And I'm guessing most of you still don't really know what happened. Yeah, you got to have somebody to repeat so you don't sound dumb, but come on Our financial institutions are strong! But there were some who saw it coming. While the whole world was having a big old party, few outsiders and weirdos saw what no-one else could. Not me, I'm not a weirdo, I'm pretty fucking cool, but we'll meet again later! These outsiders saw the giant lie at the heart of the economy and they saw it by doing something the rest of the suckers never thought to do. They looked through the nineteen thirties The housing market collapsed... Nationwide. By approximately 8 percent. And halve of all .. Eh... worries that... It wasn't default. There were.. Very... Specific identifiers. Extremely recognizable. Wait... for instance w-w-w-w one of the hallmarks of mania. Is that rapid rise and complexity, and the rates... they are fraud-ed did you know... They're going up! I've always been.. More comfortable.. When alone. I believe... maybe... it's because of... My glass eye. I lost the eye... In a childhood illness. Separates me from people. Did you know... they're going up! Highest frog-rates since the nineteen thirties. No, I didn't know that. I mean.. Ghe Ghe Ghe... Nine... nineteen thirty three the fourth year of the great depression you were playing saying great son, even heard the coach say it! Can we just go home? All social interf.. Actions are awkward for me and for the... person even when I try to compliment... It somehow... it comes out wrong... You have a very nice haircut, you do it yourself? Huh, what? No, I eh... I'm sorry... please... Pffffff... I'm going on and on. My wife told me I need to share more. That seems healthy. So .. I get the job? I really think I could help you fund. Yeah... Yeah... sure! You're David!... David... great! I guess I'll go find a desk. Is there anything you want me to work on for start? Eh... yeah. You could let me know later! s D... d... d... did ya... did you/s think it was strange when... Ehm... The tech-bubble burst in 2001 and the housing market in San-Jose. Tech-capitol of the world... Went up... It's strange... No, no! It's housing... Housing is always stable... low-risk. That's the idea... yeah. I want you to get me... The... eh... Top-20 selling mortgage bonds so, you want to know what the top-20 selling mortgage bonds are? No, no, no, I want to know what mortgages are in each one - what.. Wait... - Aren't those mortgages made up of wait... aren't those bonds made up of thousands and thousands of mortgages? Yeah... Right away, Dr. Burris. Nice guy... all day long. Hmm.. Ask anyone... Hmm, pleasure to work with. The second my son screws up, and... You'll hang it to him... Just like my dad did to me. You hear the words that are coming out of my mouth. Sorry I'm late, no cabs! Aah so get this... I met with this retail banker yesterday.. I'm supposed to be getting him to invest in a fund, instead, I start drilling him about overdraft analysis and how his bank will let customers write ten... twelve cheques before telling them they're overdrawing. And this creep... Is making billions off screwing over people this way. And I'm getting madder and madder, and I ask him. I look him in the face and I say: How can you sleep at night, knowing... That you're ripping off working people. And know what he did... He left! He just walks out of the lunch, doesn't say a word. What the fuck is that? Who's fucked up in that scenario? Am I? Or is this douche-bag? Who leaves me hanging... Is he the fucked up one? Trying to make me feel bad about myself! We have talk about this numerous times fuck him! -You can't come in late and hijack the entire session! What do you mean, I didn't hijack the meeting. Did I hijack this session? Yeah what do you do? I'm in commodities. Good luck with that! Marc... I know you've suffered a terrible loss, do you want to talk about that? I don't talk about that. Hold on... Hold on.. Shit.. Let's take this, sorry! Sorry! I don't care Porter... This guy's whole business is build upon ripping people off, how long can that last? Bye everybody! 85... That's 30 days late, that's 60 days late. Pay on time. These fico-scores they're caught up with their pants... 30 days late... Loan to value... maybe 5 maybe 90 60 days late, jeez! I've never heard of that. 30 days late he hasn't move all day. He does this every few days. Hasn't spoken to me since he hired me. Michael, how are you guy?! I've put out something really interesting... Great Michael, whenever you find something interesting, we all sit to make money. What stock are you vowing? No, no, no no.. I wanna, I wanna short the housing market. Really? But the housing market is rock-solid! Green span just said: "Bubbles are regional, defaults are rare!" Tell em I'll be there in a minute say again! Look... Greenspan's wrong! Look, I don't think you mean to do this, but eh.. Sometimes you sound very dismissive and superior. It's a fact, Greenspans wrong. I don't know how if you want your thr... Look, Michael... Metro capitol backed you four years ago when you were a doctor with a dinky wet page and some inheritance money, we've all done very well, look... Why don't you just stick with stocks... You know me... I, I, I, I, I look for value, wherever it can be found. The fact is that these mortgage backed securities are filled with extremely risky sub-prime adjustable rates. And when the majority of these adjustable rates kick in... in '07 they will begin to fail and if they fail above 15 percent the whole bond is worthless. Michael, just take a beat, we'll talk about this later! Lawrence please, don't patronize me, if... it .. Is... Mortgage backed securities, sub-prime loans, tranches... Is pretty confusing right? Doesn't it make you feel bored... Or stupid... Well... it's supposed to. Wall-street loves to use confusing terms, to make you think only they can do what they do. Or even better... For you just to leave them the fuck alone. So... here's Margot Robbie in a bubble-bath to explain. Basically, Lewis rainieri's mortgage bonds were amazingly profitable for the big banks. But then they ran out of mortgages to put in them. After all, there are only so many homes and so many people with good enough jobs to buy them... right? So the banks started filling these bonds with riskier and riskier mortgages thank you Henry that way, they can keep that profit machine churning right? By the way, these risky mortgages are called: Sub-prime. So... whenever you hear sub-prime... Think: Shit our friend Michael burry found out, that these mortgages bonds that were supposedly 65 percent AAA, were actually just, basically full of shit. So now he's going to short the bonds which means... bet against. Got it?... Good! Now fuck off! It's only a matter of time before someone else sees this investment, we have to act now. How do you know the bonds are worthless? Aren't they filled with fucking thousands of pages of mortgages? I read them! You read them? I read... yeah! No-one reads them, only the lawyers who put them together read them! I don't think they even know what they've made the housing market is propped up on these bad loans. It's a time-bomb and I want to short it. Through what instrument Michael? There are no insurance-contracts or options for mortgage bonds. The bonds are too stable! Lawrence... This is what I'm gonna do... I am gonna get a bank to make me one. Then... I'm gonna buy it. I don't want that kind of business! Money is not money! That's bad money! Hey... excuse me! Let me ask you this: What company treats its customers that shittily and succeeds? Fine... ok... Goldman... Without proving it when he was a kid he excelled at studying the Talmud and yeshiva. Whatever! But, one day his rabbi told his mom why. Paul is a fine boy and mark is an excellent student of the torah and Talmud then what's the problem rabbi? It's the reason mark is studying so hard. He's looking for inconsistencies in the word of god! So has he found any? Later Baum started his own fund on wall-street. He had an amazing nose for bullshit. He wasn't afraid to let anyone know, when and where the bull had gone number 2. Then a tragedy happened to mark and it turned his whole world really dark and ready to believe the whole system was a lie. Hold on! It's Cynthia, I'll be in the office in twenty minutes. Hi honey! The therapist called... You did it again! There were no cabs... What was I supposed to do? I worry about you mark! At least I went you're running around like you have to right every wrong in the world. Ok... fine! How angry you know what... I'm a mean guy and I'm pissed off! But... it is a shitstorm out here sweetie. You have no idea the kind of crap people are pulling. And everybody is walking around like they're in a goddamn Enya-video. They're all getting screwed you know! You know what they care about? They care about the ballgame! Or they care about what actresses went into rehab! I, I think you should try medication! No, no, we agreed, if it interfered with work. You hate wall-street, but maybe it's time to quit? I love my job! You hate your job! I love my job! You're miserable! I love my job, I love my job honey! Mark! I am sad every day about what happened. I know you must feel the same, but you never show it! I knew how close you were to your brother. Cab! Where'd ya go pal? Cab!! Everyday I think you're gonna talk about it, and you're gonna do! Will you ever think about the idea of making a change? Fine, fine, honey, you know what, I will consider it, but honestly... Cynthia I'm ok, I really am! Hey, hey! No, no, my cab! That's my cab, that's my cab, that is my cab! Schmuck! Fuck you! Fuck you! I'll call you later. I wanna buy... Swaps on mortgage bonds credit default swap, that will pay off... If the underlying... Bond fails. You want to bet against the housing market? Yes why? Those bonds only fail if millions of Americans don't pay their mortgages. That's never happened in history. If you'll excuse me Dr. burry, that seems like a foolish investment. Based on... prevailing sentiment of the market and banks, and popular culture... Yes, it's a foolish investment. But eh... Everyone's wrong... That's a good one. This is wall-street Dr. burry, if you offer us free money, we're going to take it my one concern is, is that.. Eh.. When the bonds fail.. Eh... I want to be certain, of payment, in case of solvency issues with the bank. I'm sorry, are you for real? You want to bet against the housing market, and you're worried we won't pay you? Yes.. That's correct. whispersListen.. I don't think this will work... whispers the market on housing is never gonna crash whispers this is all rock-solid by now whispers it wouldn't even if we wanted it to. whispers kinda hard one to deal with... whispers did he awestruck you? Mmhhhh. Dr burry, we could work out a pay-as-we-go structure that would payout if the bonds fail. It would also apply to your payments if the value of the mortgage-fund goes up you'd have to pay us monthly premiums. Is that acceptable Dr. burry? Yes.. It is, yes. Em.. I have prospectuses on, six mortgage-backed securities I want to show you whispers the majority of them are accepted mortgages. Dr burry, these should be fine! We're prepared to sell you 5 million in credit default swaps on these mortgage bonds. Can we make it a hundred million? Absolutely! We can make it one-hundred million. We'll be in touch, send some paperwork over. I like these cups, could I take one for my son? Have one, yes, yes! Thank you! Have two! Is there any way to do two-hundred million? We can... But are you sure? Absolutely... Absolutely, we can! We do, eh... different projects we do gardening, we do the bonds... I'd like to .. Eh... It's not bad for yourself to be found extreme it's very cool! Hey Randall, what with the Dom? Bonuses aren't for three months. We just sold 200 million in credit-swaps for mortgage-bonds some fund-manager from California, fucking crazy right?! Only way to make money dog! I didn't know there were swaps on mortgages there are now, we made it for him! His head must have caught up with his hole or do something... I don't know. Want one? No? Awwwww Jared did you hear about the deal that Randall did with some fund-manager? Randall? Bullshit! He's a foot-soldier, I'm sure it's a shit deal. No, it's for real! I told you we'd meet later. Unfortunately... it's in a place like this, which I would never be in. I never hung out with these idiots after work, ever! I had fashion friends. Apparently this guy wanted two-hundred mill in credit default swaps. Randall made the sale, can you believe it? Somebody shorted two-hundred mill in mortgage bonds? That was just with deutsche... Word is... he had half the town. How much in total? 1.3 billion what? That's... that's pretty much all of scion's liquidity! Michael, that's highly distressing! Lawrence... That is not all of our liquidity! And I'm not certain that you really understand this trade. This is a certainty. Mike, I consider myself a mentor to you. But our company is not comfortable with this investment. Am I being clear? Lawrence I have full autonomy when it comes to investment strategy you can read our agreement. Do not throw our acception- agreement in my face Michael! We had an underlying understanding, you wouldn't act like a goddamn crazy man! This is not crazy... It's all very logical. So now we pay up premiums on these swaps against housing-market until the mortgages fail? In other words... We lose millions until something that has never happened before... happens? That's correct! Hello mark Baum oh hey Cathy! It wasn't me, I had a personal thing this afternoon. I'm not your babysitter. If your appoint makes money for mark and Sally I'm happy! Ok... hey did I hear you're expecting? Eh, we're expecting to be expecting... I'd be upset clearing this out, but we're .. That's exciting! Lump.. In my ball I'll go in for a scan hmm turns out I have large thing, called an epididymis which is a thing that goes around the ball and is like a sack underneath. I have an extremely pronounced epididymis enriveted that is. Almost as large as another testicle on itself so get this... Cynthia.. Guys! Cynthia wants me to quit! And open a b&b in Vermont. That's great! I'd love to see mark Baum run a bed and breakfast! Like: Here's your steel-cut oatmeal asshole! Mark refused to kiss the ring of the people with the checkbooks, so he had to set up his fund under Morgan Stanley's umbrella. His small team his... Distrust of the system. You guys are sick.. You're sick! She says, this job is making me unhappy. But you're happy when you're unhappy! I am happy when I'm unhappy! Bennie Daniel you know how to make a muffin? Mark's numbers guy. Do you even know how to do laundry? Make a bed? -Okay! Bennie lost his father to a violent crime when he was young just like mark, he didn't talk about it. I don't talk about that! Cynthia's no joke, she could actually make him move to Vermont! I mean, she made me start wearing a suit. Porter Collins, former Olympic rower, went to brown. He worked with Baum at a previous firm, and couldn't figure out why no-one listened to Baum. The guy with all the good ideas. Sir, yeah, I know, do you have the wrong front-point? Cause there is another front-point in this same building that is baum's and Danny Moses, the optimist of the bunch. And a hell of a trader, which is the only reason they put up with his bullshit optimism. You're a weird caller, you take longer with a wrong number than anybody else I mean... it's this guy... From... deutsche, who was talking about shorting housing bonds. And then, in the middle of the call where I had realized he had the wrong front-point. And then... and then... cause he wanted the one on the eighth floor. He wanted to short housing bonds? Hmmm it happens like five times a day, that somebody uses the wrong front-point. We should change our name! Wait, wait... He wanted to short housing bonds? Who bets against housing? What's the abx at? What's abx? - It tracks sub-prime mortgage bond value. -Go back to sleep! The abx is at... eh... Wow! It's down, it's down 3 points since last year, that's weird. I haven't heard a peep about that! What was this guys name? Jared vennekt... vennett that's right! These lucky sons of bitches caught wind of one of the best trades in wall-street history from a wrong number. They should've paid 10 percent to my fox ticket system. He was Jared vennett, vennett Jared vennett, from deutsche, sounded very sketchy. Sounds like a douchebag. murmuring in himself ok.. Hi... how are you?! Have a seat! Hey mister vennett from deutsche bank, who do we have? So, how many people have you talked to about this trade? A few. There's definitely some interest. Ohh.. My boss would have my ass are you crazy Jer? Get lost! Fuck you! Which is why you're here talking to us on the wrong number? Sounds like there's a lot of interest. Alright. A few people have us in, just to laugh at me on this deal, is that you? Is that what this is? That's not what this is, that's just how mark is. Let's see what you got. I'm sorry, do you smell that, what is that? What? What's that smell? Cologne? No... Opportunity! No... money. I smell money... Chris... Goddammit! I'm sorry. This is your basic mortgage bond. Alright, the originals were simple. They were just thousands of AAA-mortgages bundled together, guaranteed by the us-government. The modern ones are different. They're private. And they're made up of layers of tranches. Highest level AAA's getting paid first. The lowest rated Bs getting paid last, taking on defaults first. No obviously if you're buying Bs you could make more money. But, they're a little risky, sometimes they fail. Chris... Somewhere along the line, these Bs and bb's went from a little risky to dogshit. Where's the trash? I'm talking rock-bottom fico-scores. No income-verification. Adjustable rates... Dogshit! The default-rates are already up from one to four percent fellas. And if they rise to eight percent... And they will! A lot of these bbb's are going to zero too. And that... You're too close... Is an opportunity. Ok, you're saying that at 8 percent the bonds fail and we're already at 4 percent? That's right. If they go to eight... it's Armageddon. Yeah that's right. How come nobody's talking about this? And you're completely sure of the math? Look at him... That's my quant! Your what? My quantitative... my maths specialist! Look at him! You notice anything different about him? Look at his face! Look at his eyes! I'll give you a hint.. His name is Yang! He won a national maths competition.. In China! He doesn't even speak English! Yeah! I'm sure of the math. Actually, my name is jeong, and... I do speak English Jared likes to say it though.. Because he thinks it makes me seem more authentic and... I got second in that national math competition so... you're offering us a chance to short this pile of blocks? How? With something called a credit default swap. It's like insurance on the bond, and if it goes bust, you can make 10-to-1. Even 20-to-1 return, and it's already slowly going bust. 10-to-1, 20-to-1... No way! And no-one is paying attention. No-one is paying attention. Because the banks are too busy getting paid obscene fees to sell these bonds. But wait... you are the bank you work for the bank, I bet your margins are pretty nice and fat. Let's not talk about my margins by the way. Being nice and fat... that's a nice shirt, do they make it for men? Aren't you the bank? I work for the bank! I don't think like a bank big banks, small bank... I like to make money. Alright... Let me put it this way... I'm standing in front of a burning house, and I'm offering you fire insurance on it how can these underlying bonds be... As bad as you say? It wouldn't be legal! Nobody knows what's in them! Nobody knows, what's in the bonds, I've seen some that are 65 percent AAA-rating. That I know, for a fact, are filled with 95 percent sub-prime shit. With fico's below 550 get the fuck out of here! Want me to really blow your mind? When the market deems a bond too risky to buy, what do you think we do with it? Take a guess! Wi don't I don't know, you tell me! Alright... You think we just warehouse it on the books? No, we just repackage it, with a bunch of other shit that didn't sell and put it into a cdo. A cdo? Yes... a cdo. What is that? W where we take a bunch of Bs, bb's and bbb's that haven't sold, and we put em in a pile... And when the pile gets large enough, the whole is suddenly considered 'diversified'. And then... the whores of the rating agency, give it a 92 / 93 percent AAA-rating, no questions asked... Holy... what! Say that again! Collateralized debt obligations it's important to understand, because it's what allowed the housing crisis become a nationwide economic disaster. Here's world-famous chef Anthony bourdain to explain. Ok, I'm a chef on a Sunday-afternoon setting the menu of a big restaurant. I ordered my fish on Friday, which is the mortgage bond that Michael burry shorted. But... some of the fresh doesn't sell.. I don't know why, maybe it just came out, how Anthony has the intelligence of a dolphin. So... what am I gonna do? Throw all this unsold fish, which is the BBB-level of bond, in the garbage? And take the loss? No way! Being a crafty and morally honorous chef that I am... Every crappy levels of the bond I don't sell... I throw into a seafood stew. It's not old fish! It's a whole new thing! The best part is... They're eating retailed halibut! That... is a cdo. I just need to know how these could possibly be correlated. You're like d-d- Dora the explorering, you're the first person who has found this... So.. Hold on.. So mortgage bonds are dogshit? Cdo's are dogshit wrapped in catshit. Yeah... that's right! Institutions treat these cdo's like they're as solid as treasury bonds. And they're going to zero.. No, that can't be right, there, there, are 500 billion in housing bonds sold last year alone ratings agencies, the banks... The fucking government? You're saying they're all asleep at the wheel? Yeah! My whole department is long on this stuff. They call me chicken little. They call me bubble-boy. A's... zero. B's.. Zero, bb's... zero. Bbb's... zero. And then that happens! What... is that? That's America's housing market. Thank you. Fucking a Jared! Shut your fucking mouth! Bye Jared! I don't like it! He's playing us. He's playing us, he's got too much skin in the game, and he's dumping his position. What if he's right? You want him to be right! Yes, I do! The banks have given us twenty-five percent interest rates on credit cards. They have screwed us on student-loans, so we can never get out from under. Then this guy, walks into my office and says: "Those same banks got greedy, they lost track of the market" and I can profit off of their stupidity fuck! Yeah! I want him to be right! I mean, how come you don't hate this guy? He's everything you taught us not to trust! You can't hate him! He is so transparent in his self-interest that I kinda respect him. Would I buy a car from him?... No! Is he right about the mortgage market? Let's find out. Let's find out! Look... it's two very simple questions: Is there a housing bubble? And if there is... how exposed are the banks? Let's get on this quickly too, because if he is right... Every loser with a couple million bucks in a fund is gonna be jumping on us. Let's go! J.P. Morgan-chase, j.P. Morgan-chase. Ok.. Don't!... Stop saying j.P. Morgan-chase! I got a good feeling about this just a meeting though, you know... It's just a meeting! People have meetings all the time... You know! People drink their coffee, they have a meeting... Brownfield funds? Yes! Yes! Hello, hey! Chris... I'm on Ted's desk. I'm Charlie, I'm Charlie Geller, I'm Jamie, Jamie shipley.. Hi! We're so excited to get setup on your trading platform! Here, eh.. Have a seat a second. Alright! So I... Ted did ask Ehm.. To do us some meeting in front. But I eh... I couldn't find any marketing material on you guys.. Oh... we just moved here from Boulder. Oh, can we see some of your offering documents? Well brownfield has it own... money... It's our money... yeah. Well can you tell us how much you manage? Of course! We're doing 30 million right now... eh... But we started four years ago, with a hundred-ten thousand. Wow! So as you can see, that's pretty phenomenal returns. We wanna get an isda-agreement with j.P. Morgan, so we can deal in long-term options. That's really cool! Yeah! That is so cool! Thank you! But eh.. You guys are under the capitol requirements for an isda. By how much? Er.. How much eh... One billion four-hundred-seventy millions so... A lot! This makes us look bad doesn't it? That we didn't know what the capitol requirements were. I... eh.. It's not great! But, eh... Keep up those returns and give us a call way down the line you know? Ok? Ok, of course! Thanks Chris! Have a good one guys! Thank you Chris! Shit! Who the fuck schedules a meeting at 4:50 in the afternoon? Dude, b of a and bear didn't even return our calls and even fucking morkovia blew us off! I know man! Here's the prospectuses of all the other losers who didn't make it past the lobby. I don't think I can do this anymore.. Yo, I'm young yet, I can still do something with my life! I miss Colorado anyway. The weed's better! Gentleman... I need you to leave! Yep, yeah we're going, let's go! Look at this, look at this! This guy says that the housing market is a giant bubble! Ok, so this part isn't totally accurate. Now, we didn't find Jared vennett's housing bubble pitch in a lobby of a bank that rejected us. Truth is... ehm.. A friend had told Charlie about it and I read about it, in grand central's trade observer. This is crazy! This is... crazy stuff! Here, they're saying that there's 10-to-1 returns, on credit default swaps for mortgage backed securities and the whole housing market is about to collapse. For Jamie and Charlie, the housing market doomsday prediction was music to their ears! They had started working out of Jamie's garage, with a 110 thousand Jamie had saved taking sailboats up and down the east-coast. Our investment-strategy was simple. People hate to think about bad things happening so they always underestimate their likelihood. Their strategy simple and brilliant. What he said! Jamie and Charlie found: Markets will sell options very cheaply on things they think will never happen. So, when they were wrong, they were wrong small. But when they were right... They were right big! Boooooom! Within a few years they had turned a 110 grand into 30 million then it was time to go to New York City, and so far... it wasn't going very well so what if it does seem interesting? Nope, no bank will give us our isda. We're dead in the water... These kind of trades are totally out of the question! We gotta call Ben! Pffff call Ben! Ben ricker was a former trader in Singapore for chase. Quit the whole game in disgust! He just happened to be Jamie's neighbor when they were in Colorado they met, walking dogs... But Ben was dark... He didn't just think the whole system would fail he thought the whole world was going down! This salad's... oh.. Hmmm good! You know, every one of these vegetables is fresh from my garden you guys should start your own garden! What you gotta do is get your soil off petrol chemicals, use wood-ash and urine, help destroy the soil, creates mono-nitrate, seeds are gonna be the new currency! And not those frankenseeds from monsanto, I'm talking about good healthy organic seeds. Make yourself a garden, learn to live off the land! A fucking lunatic! Ben had real experience in a big bank, Jamie and Charlie, never even been in a Manhattan bank bathroom! But Ben was done with the banking world, he was very clear! Do you realize that? Alright, let's crunch some numbers, then maybe we'll talk about calling Ben I don't wanna crunch the numbers, when haven't we crunched the numbers? Seriously guys! I need you out of here of course, yes mam!2 one second! We're going, we're going! Oh god, I hate this! This is a total waste of time! Come on! Would you relax! I think this is a housing development about forty-five minutes outside of town. Mark wants us to check that out first. I hope there's some Cuban restaurants on the way there, because I heard the Cuban food is amazing in Miami. Please don't be chipper in the face of me being miserable! It really makes me hate you! How is wanting to eat good food, being chipper? Hello? Hello? What's up man? What do you want? Hello, I'm surveying mortgage owners who are over 90 days delinquent I'm looking for a Harvey humpsy you want my landlord's dog? Your landlord filled out his mortgage application using his dogs name? I guess so! Wait, has that asshole not been paying his mortgage? Coz, I've been paying my rent! Well, yeah he is over 90 days delinquent seriously man! Am I gonna have to leave? My kids just got setup in this school man! Hey... how are ya? Ehm.. You should talk to your landlord about that I'm sorry I don't have anymore information, but you ehm... You have a great day! Seriously... is everything gonna be ok? You should call... You should call him! You should give him a call! It's not my fault dude! I've been paying! Hello! I think somebody just left all they took was the TV. It's weird! They didn't even clean up the counter oh, god! It's like chernobyl! It's like a hundred houses, it can't be four people living here. No, fuck that! Shit! He's been there for seven hours what is he looking at? I heard he had a breakdown! Just let him is what I think Dr. burry's office no, he actually prefers that you e-mail him. Excuse me! Hey Lawrence! We have no confidence in your ability to identify macro-economic trends. You flew here to tell me that? Why? Every, e-e-anyone can see there's a real-estate bubble actually no-one can see a bubble, that's what makes it a bubble there's still warns! There are always markers! Mortgage fraud quintupled since 2000 and the average take-home pay is flat, but... Home-prices are soaring, that means the homes are dead, not assets so Mike burry of San Jose, a guy who... Gets his haircut at supercuts, and doesn't wear shoes, knows more than Alan greenspan and Hank Paulson... I haven't talked to Hank, but yes he does. That's cute, that's cute! Are you being sarcastic with us Mike? Lawrence... I don't know how to be sarcastic! I don't know how to be funny I don't know how to... Work people.. I just know how to read numbers! How big is your short position right now? Eh... 1.3 billion and the premiums? Eh, we pay... eh... roughly... 80 to 90 million each year, which is surprising, because I was the first to do this trade watch, it will pay! I may have been early, but I'm not wrong! It's the same thing! It's the same thing Mike! You're managing a fund of what? 555 million? In six years, it will all be gone! On one bet the second quarter of '07 is when the adjustable rates kick in! The defaults will skyrocket! Says you! How much is eligible for withdrawal before they're due? Say in the next two quarters. If your investors panic my god Mike! No-one will pull out, that would be suicide man down 17 percent for the year, but if they trust me, and they trust me! No-one trusts you! No-one! I've sent several emails to my investors letting them know that the.. The... It's the second quarter of '07 is when our housing position shows returns and ehm... I've been very clear! People will withdraw their money! Why? You'd have to be so stupid! If, if if the funds capitol drops too much... Then the swaps contracts are voided and then the banks... Get to keep all of it, all of it! The contracts are voided? The contracts are voided!?! Holy shit! O, motherfucker! Michael... Give me my money back. Michael, do you hear me? I want my money back! Give me my fucking money back! You motherfucker! The market is in an itsybitsy little gully right now like everybody said: "Ok, that was crazy, let's just all calm down!" I sold that house for 350, the year it was built. Two years later... 480, then 585, maybe eighteen months ago. This couple bought it for 650 last year! He'd let it go for that... I don't it will break his heart, but he'll let it go why is he selling? Neither one is working right now surely, they're motivated right? As motivated as one can be in this neighborhood. This house on the left, I'd say they're properly motivated. Wow! A lot of people seem very motivated. It's just a gully that's all. Just nerves so... where do we stand? I need to talk to my wife ehm.. This market will last! Actually, can I talk to a mortgage broker? Anybody you recommend? Anybody you like? Yes, yes, there's someone, absolutely! Yeah, bitch better like me, sent her ass to Cabo! So is Morgan Stanley recruiting us? Is that.. No, eh no. The bank owns our hedge-fund we're not really a part of it, we invest in financial service companies. We're trying to understand the residential mortgage business. How many loans do you write each month? I don't know, about six what was it four years ago? Ten... but maybe fifteen. I was a bartender, now I own a boat! So, how many of these are eh.. Adjustable rate mortgages? Well, most. Yeah, I'd say about ninety percent the bonuses on those skyrocketed a few years ago adjustables are bread and honey so, do applicants ever get rejected? Seriously? Look if they get rejected I suck at my job! Even if they have no money? Well, my firm offers a ninja loan. No income no job application, I just leave the income-section blank if I want. Corporate doesn't care. These people just want homes, and they go with the flow. Your companies don't verify? If I write a loan on Friday afternoon, big bank is gonna buy it by Monday lunch. Deal! Same here! Could you hold on a second? Yeah I don't get it... Why are they confessing? They're not confessing... They're bragging! Do people have any idea what they are buying? I focus on immigrants! Once they find out they're getting homeless.. They'll sign where you tell em to sign. They don't ask questions, don't understand the rates. And you target them with red soup? Their credit actually isn't bad enough for him. Look I'm a yield guy I make two thousand on a fixed rate prime but I can make ten thousand on a sub-prime adjustable trust me, I'm not driving that 7-series without strippers no-one on the pole has good credit, and they're all cash-rich. Who's Warren buffett? Ok, so, strippers... Like exotic dancers... Nude, 'n all... Topless.. Strippers? Yeah, hmmmm. Can you introduce us? Yes! Yes! I always get option to pay adjustable. I'm a private contractor. Can't hear you, I'm sorry! I always get option to pay adjustable, I'm a private contractor, I need the flexibility. And you tell the mortgage company what you do? I write: Therapist you can touch me! Always? Only in v.I.P. No, no, no you say you always do adjustables and you have more than one loan on a property? Everybody does! At least down here I'm sorry what? Everybody does! At least down here that way you'll only put down like five percent well prices have leveled off though, right? Yeah, it's a gully would you mind not moving anymore? I'll still pay you! Sorry... We're not alone. Ok, look.. If home-prices don't go up, you are not going to be able to refinance and you're going to be stuck paying whatever your monthly payment is once it jumps up, whenever your tisa-rate expires your monthly's could go up two-to three hundred percent! James says I can always refinance! Well... he's... a liar. Actually in this particular case, James probably is wrong. Two-hundred percent? On all my loans? What do you mean? We're talking about two loans on one house right? I have five houses and a condo.. Hey, there's a bubble! How do you know? Trust me. Call vennett, buy 50 million in swabs on the nbs what do we got? Garibaldi's are bbb! Mark, are you sure? Yeah, yeah! It's time to call bullshit! Bullshit on what? Every fucking thing! Is this America's angriest hedge-fund? Hi listen, I got one last question for you how are you fucking us? There's a nice way to say that Vinnie... I'm serious we'll buy your swaps, but only if you say how you're fucking us. I'm not fucking you Vinnie, I'm kissing you I'm looking deep into your eyes as I make love to you Vinnie. I'm handing you the deal of the century on a fucking platter! What do I get out of it? Easy.. I got a 20 million a month negative carrier I got bosses trying to pull the plug, because they're thinking I'm out of my fucking mind alright? We make this trade, those problems aren't so big anymore and sure... swaps are a dark market so... I set the price, whatever price I want. And when you come for the payday, I'm gonna rip your eyes out I'm gonna make a fortune but the good news is Vinnie, you're not gonna care cause you're going to make so much fucking money! That's what I get out of it wanna know what you get out of it? You get the ice-cream, the hot-fudge, the banana and the nuts! Right now I get the sprinkles and yeah... if this goes through... I get the cherry. You get the sundae! Alright, I'll buy that. Thank you! So what do you say? Want me to make you a market? We'll take 50 million garibaldi-4 triple-b sharpen your pencils, I'll get the paperwork ready aahhh... fuck you too! Yes! That's right! He has so many numbers, and I always forget, which one he prefers, cause he's very specific! Just pick the first one I don't know if it's the first one just try it! Ok Ben ricker hey Ben it's Jamie! Jamie, you know you're not supposed to use this line. Told ya... Ok, let's try number two out of fourteen. Ben ricker Ben, why do you do that man? You're a retired trader, ok.. No-one is listening to your calls! The NSA has a 52 billion dollar budget and the ability to tens of millions calls a second, you think they're not using it? Ok, I promise I will refrain from saying, Ben ricker and dirty bomb in the same sentence Jesus! I'm sorry dude! Ben ricker did you get a chance to look at what we sent you Ben? It's Charlie... I'm here too! Hi Charlie, yeah I did, hold on! Ben, you still there? Yeah I'll be honest gentlemen you scared the shit out of me! That's a good thing right? That means that this vennett guy is not wrong! No, he's not! Cool tell me more about these cdo's yeah yeah, ehm, ok vennett mentioned the cdo's, but actually, we took a look and they're way worse then even he realizes -these things don't even make sense Ben. We can't even model them it's a hundred times bigger than the nbs and ninety percent AAA-rating? Yes, over ninety percent it's incredible! Yeah, I took a good hard look at the cdo's you want to short. They're brilliant! Worthless, total crap! Jamie, very good! What can I say.. I, I'm, I'm, good at finding shit! So Ben, we shorted the bb's and the bbb's, and the risk is relatively low, pay-up is like 25-to-1 ok, so why are you calling me? I don't do this anymore! Look, Ben... We need you to help us get the isda. If we get a hunting license, we can short this crap we know you hate wall-street, we're not asking you to do the trading we're simply asking you to... To help us. To get a seat at the fucking table it's a pretty ugly table guys look Ben, the system fucked up in a big, big way here, ok? And somehow... we, eh.. Know before anyone else. You know, this is a once in a lifetime deal! I'm thinking ok, I'll call deutsche bank thank you Ben! Oh and bear, what about bear? They have some apprehensible product! Ok, bear will trade with anybody! I'll see if I can push it through and oh, thank Jared for us. Hi, it's mark, I need to talk to Vinnie right now! Wait a second how it is that you are fucking us, cause what we are seeing here, Morgan Stanley building fast! Are we all jocks at the same computer-screens? Can we talk to one person please? Ok, yeah. What do you mean, you're in the tower? Vinnie, are you there? Mark, are you there? Hello? Yeah, yeah, did you hear? Mortgages defaults have gone through the roof! Anybody jumping off the building yet? Why would they? Sub-prime mortgages are up? What? -Vennett wants 1,5 million more in collateral by-close vennett's asking us to post collateral what the hell is going on? We don't know, but deutsche is on the phone demanding payment call vennett, call that little shit! Call vennett! Tell him to get his ass down here so, sub-prime loans go bad, but sub-rime bonds, which are made up of sub-prime loans, are more valuable? They want another 1.9 million by market close what about the ratings-agencies? Moody's, s&p? Are they downgrading the cdo's or mortgage bonds where are the ratings-agencies at? They're the fucking same! Nope, they're all still AAA! What the hell! Are you fucking kidding me? Those fuckers, those motherfuckers! They go public and all the care about is their bottom-line and their shit! Mark, that's not all... The Morgan Stanley risk-guys are here they called in Kathy tao I'm trying to convince her to make her sell us swaps apparently eh, tying up securing some insurance payments so, a housing armageddon is not prudent investing. What did Kathy say? Nothing yet, she keeps asking if this is one of your crusades ok, I want you to walk back in there and very calmly, very politely tell the risk-assessors to fuck off! And then meet me over at standard & poors, we're gonna talk to Georgia get that fuck Jared vennett I want to bash his fucking head in uh, gentlemen... I spoke with mark baum he says: To fuck off! I don't see a damn thing. Aaah, my eye-doctor is always busy I end up taking any appointment and my whole morning gets shot to hell! So... Alrighty front-point partners how can standard & poors help you? Well, we don't understand why the ratings-agencies haven't downgraded sub-prime bonds since the underlying loans are clearly deteriorating well, the delinquency-rates do have people worried, but they're actually within our models so Says you? You're convinced the underlying mortgages in these bonds are solid loans? That is our opinion yeah. Oh crack the tape! Have you looked at the loan-level data? What you think we do here all day? They're giving these loans to anyone with a credit-score and a pulse what do you think we do here all day? Not sure, I guess that's why we're here. What I don't understand we can't re-recheck and then check again! If these mortgage-bonds are so stable, so solid have you ever refused to rate? You're delusional! We stand behind it Georgia! Have you ever refused to rate any of these bonds upper-tranches AAA? Can we see the paperwork on those? Oooh, I'm under no obligation to share that information with you, whoever you might be. Just answer the question Georgia, can you name one time in the past year? Where you checked the tape and you didn't give the banks the AAA-percentage they wanted? If we don;T give them the ratings, they'll go to moody's right down the block. If we don't work with them they will go to our competitors not our fault, simply the way the world works. Holy shit! Ah yes, now you see it! And I never said that! You're selling ratings for fee's a ratings shop you could afford to make less, make less. Nobody said that! And it is not my decision, I have a boss. Are you kidding me? No I am not kidding you! Is that the angle you're taking? So now anybody who has a boss, can't be held responsible for doing shitty and illegal things! -What are you? Four? No, eh, eh, I am not four! Mister baum, I am not, no! And I wonder, I wonder, what your incentives might be. Is it maybe in your best interest to have the ratings changed? Is it, perhaps? How many credit default swaps do you own? Doesn't make me wrong just makes you a hypocrite! Raaaaaahr! Mortgage-delinquencies went up and the cdo's got more valuable, unbelievable! We know, it's completely backwards! I just called an old friend at bear he didn't even know what a cdo is. Yeah, I just had to wire bear and deutsche seventy thousand dollars it's like two plus two equals... Fish! Great! You bought into a rigged game we lose everything.. -I'm gonna have to move back in with my mom! Can't do that well, alright I got a colon in a couple of mins wait a minute, hold on! Ben! Ben, look! Either the banks are clueless and they don't know how to value these cdo's or... They're suck crooks that... the cdo's are worth shit, and they're hiding it! I think we should buy more swaps! What? -Suck it up and pay up fellas we made a deal no way, no! Are you fucking kidding me? You come in here you fucking fucking! -You're a fuck, how do you even seriously? No, no, no! Yeah! You're unbelievable! lndistinct shouting and cussing no, no, no! Seriously, colonic once a year! Ass! -You got a matching little Butler-boy you butt-fuck! Are you done? Think so yeah -god I pulled a muscle in my bowl from yelling mortgage defaults have done nothing but go up! Yet you quote us a higher price on the bonds please explain that to me! There's no way that makes sense! There's no way you're marketing these swaps appropriately! I mean, why shouldn't we back out of this trade right now? Didn't I say, that when we made this deal, that the rating-agencies, the scc and the big banks were clueless! Didn't I say that? Didn't I say it? Yes you did, you did! Shut up! Now their foot's on fire and they think their steak is done, and you're surprised? That's not stupidity... That's fraud! Tell me the difference between stupid and illegal and I'll have my wife's brother arrested. That was funny! -I guess you just don't realize how clueless the system really is! Yes, there's some shady shit going down! But trust me, it's fueled by stupidity! Look at yourselves! You know you passed yourselves off as cynical people but... You still have some faith in the system don't you? I don't well, except for Vinnie! Who gives a shit? No way! Look! Either we're right, or we're wrong in a giant, giant way! And if we're wrong then we gotta find someone to help us get out of this trade I'm not feeling remotely confident that we're right and, and... if we're wrong who's gonna tell us? Who understands this stuff? It makes no sense! I think we need to go to Vegas! What's in Vegas? Vegas! What the hell is in Las Vegas? The American securitization forum is there next week every bond and cdo-salesman, sub-prime lender and swap-trader is gonna be there I'm telling you your bet is against their money, it's about time you find out just how dumb that money really is god no, I hate Vegas! I hear the food has gotten really good in Vegas, they have a nobu now could you fucking stop! In a sense? If the bond is rich, it is. Rich just means overpriced I can't sleep on a plane so I did my homework -ok, let's focus! What's our goal? Figure out if this is a deal of a lifetime or... Everyone knows here something we don't and we're gonna get royally screwed right, remember that when you meet with guys from bear! I'll set you up with a face-to-face awesome, where is that? Holy shit! Five years ago securitization was a loser-convention a hundred, maybe two-hundred people would show 500 billion dollars later you get this! There's a lot of smuck-looking people in here huh!? It looks like someone just hit a piata that was filled with white people who suck at golf I mean, who are all these clown? Ah come on, I think it looks fun! Charlie, vennett says these are the people we're betting against. Yeah, here we go Chris on my left, Chris, on my left! Gentlemen! -When do we get a chance to face-time with some of these lovely folks? Chris, give em the key-cords! Do you even know which key-cords you're giving out? First of all, how was your travel? Uneventful? Uneventful! Ok, I've been here for six hours! I've already been to the gym, I had two poached eggs, and I played Blackjack with Harry Dean Stanton thank you for your diary! Face-time! I'd like some face-time! Just remember, we're here just to gather information! We're gathering information, we're not advertising our short-position! Right? We don't want to spook anybody! Can we do that? You got a big mouth, and you like to run it can you just keep it shut for a few minutes? -Ok, ok! Yeah, don't worry, we'll play nice! Ladies and gentlemen! Business is good! Profits are strong! And the mortgage continues to be the bedrock on which this economy is built. Yes, we had to take some losses in our sub-prime department last year, but those losses, will be contained at only five percent! Now in our residential sector... Mark, it's not a q&a! Of those variable rate-packages were gobbled up by the I have a question please! Sir, the q&a is after my statement, but you know what, you seem anxious! How can I help you? How are you? Fine, thank you! Would you say, that is it a possibility, or a probability that sub-prime losses stop at five percent? Thank you! I would say it is a very strong probability, indeed! So, ehm, back to the residential sector, when we rolled out the new variable rates package -excuse me! The ehm. He he he! Zero! Zero! Zero! There is a zero percent chance that your sub-prime losses will stop at five percent! Zero! Excuse me! I have to take this he must be from bank of America! No, I'm really not doing anything right now! As I was saying, our residential sector uh huh, and how are the kids? Consumers reacted to our packages mark baum really did that! When we were in Vegas he did that! He said that... he took the call, now you see what I had to deal with! Woohoo! This uzi is fucking awesome! If I can get this cdo-machine to run for another two years and then, I'm rich as fuck and I got my house in Aspen! But do you have any concerns about the performance of the underlying securitizations? It's easy to see that delinquencies, eh, default-rates are on the rise right now! Could you please stop being such a buzz-kill dude! We didn't bring you out here to talk about work bro! Why'd you bring us out here? Because we need to be able to expense the ammo to a client! We're gonna shoot some terrorists, watch out boys! These guys are morons! Fucking tool! Woo!- Fuck yes! Boom, yeah man boom! We ought to be buying every swap we can get our hands on! Just hold on okay, hold on! My brothers ex-girlfriend works for the scc, she just told me she's in town, okay!? So if we're missing something, maybe she can tell me, give me some insight. In the mean-time, you go to the main floor to buy some more swaps well actually, we're about to invest in housing bonds. I was just wondering if the scc is worried about them at all I know you're not allowed to tell me specifics, but, just generally. Ow, we don't investigate mortgage bonds truth is, since we had our budgets cut, we don't investigate much! Then why are you here? I thought.. I'm not here for the scc! I'm here on my own dime I'm floating my resume to some big banks! How's your brother by the way? How are you floating your resume to big banks? I mean, you're supposed to be the ones policing the big banks grow up Jamie! There must be some kind of law against working for a financial institution right after you've been working in financial regulation right? No! No! Hey! Dougie! Hey, come over here! What are you doing at Caesar's? He's a Goldman we can do bbb-level swaps at 500 basis points, maybe! You're praising the swaps, like the bond is gonna collapse even though the bond-value is going up? Really? Exciting times! What the hell is going on?! Lewis, can you come early tomorrow, please? I need to unload the aig and country-wide Freddy Mac positions so we can afford the premiums on the core mortgage-shorts on the swaps no problem Dr. burry Dr. burry! If the investors withdraw, what's gonna happen here? Are we done? Honestly I don't know! The, the... The bonds aren't going down! They won't move! It's possible that we are in a completely fraudulent system. Or... you're, you're wrong. Sure! It's possible, I just don't know how! I guess... When... Someone's wrong, they never.. They never... Know how! See you in the morning! Yeah. Even bear up their prices! They keep calling us brownhall you just don't have the money or the reputation, don't take it personal! I don't think I have the strip-club in me tonight I'm just gonna get some drinks around. Watch some pay-per-view book us some flights out for the morning. D- d-deal, we need a deal, right, a deal. Uhm, we need a deal we can afford, we need a deal they're not gonna refuse! So... what can we do? We can... The aa-tranches, what if we bet against the aa-tranches? Who's not gonna take that bet? We know that they say they're ninety-five percent AAA-rated but in reality, they're more like twenty-five percent, some of them are zero percent! We also know that if the bottom-tranches fail at over eight percent the upper-tranches are affected and they go to zero. I'll bet you right now, that those aa's are actually like b's! I rarely ever say these words but I think Charlie is right! Look, Ben! Pay-off! Is 200-to-1, but they're all taking the ratings off face value they're charging penny's on the dollar to bet against double-a's just when I start thinking you guys are clowns! No-one on the planet is betting against double-a's the banks will think we're either high, or having a stroke and they'll take every dime we have to offer! Kind of brilliant! This is what we did, that no-one else thought of. Not even baum or Berry thought to short the double-a's but we did. Little brownhall capitol so we're interesting in shorting some of the aa-tranches of cdo's come on guys, what's the angle? I've got no angle, we're new to this, we're just so hyped! We wanna do fifteen million in swaps on the double-a tranche I don't understand! You can buy as much double-a tranches as you want! Forty million against the double-a brother, I would sell you as much as you want! I understand perfectly Bob! Want the deal? That's cool, that's alright with me! He's gone! Don't do that! Stop, stop! Stop that! Charlie! Wooooh! Stop it, stop! What? Do you have any idea what you just did? Come on, we just made the deal of our lifetime, we should celebrate! You just bet against the American economy! Fuck yeah we did! Yeah! Which means! Fuck yeah! Oh! Which means... If we're right... If we're right, people lose homes! People lose jobs! People lose retirement savings, people lose pensions! You know what I hate about fucking banking! It reduces people to numbers! Here's a number! Every one percent unemployment goes up, 40 thousand people die! Did you know that?! Did you know that? No, I didn't know that! We were just excited! Just don't fucking dance! Alright! Where are you going? Whoah, I just got really scared! First of all, great show today! You were terrific! Thank you! Your big mouth was a revelation! I appreciate that! You worried you, and your swaps were getting played? Well, this is an opportunity for you to meet who you're betting against! Try not to get too righteous and listen a little! Ok, fine! Who is this guy? A real solid-gold asshole! I'm a cdo-manager a cdo-manager? Yup, at Harding advisors I didn't realize that there was anything to manage with cdo's oh, well. We select the securities that go into the cdo-portfolio and monitor the assets I do most of meryll-lynch's cdo's do you represent the investors or meryll-lynch? The investors! You do. Yeah! But... Meryll-lynch isn't gonna send you any costumers unless you put merrill-lynch's bonds in your cdo... Good question! Let's just assume merrill and I have a... We have a good relationship you have a good relationship with merrill-lynch? We've been doing business together and so the cdo's.. That you create are, are, are, of the highest quality and the highest of value! Absolutely! Absolutely! Are you at all concerned about the rising default-rates? I assume no risk for this produce myself mark okay! So let me get this straight the bank calls you up they give you the bonds they wanna sell they give you clients, they give you money to run your business, give you fat fee's for doing so but you represent the investors? Is that right? Yeah! But we're not in the merrill-lynch building! Ok, where are you? We're in New Jersey! You're twenty minutes away! Five, if you use the helicopter! That's funny eh? That's hilarious! Oh boy! Your boss is about to explode! No, he's too curious to explode! Hold on, say that again! Cdo a, has parts of cdo b and cdo b, has parts of cdo a and then they both get put inside cdo c. Yeah and that one is called cdo square! A cdo of a cdo! Right? And then there's cdo's made up of the opposite sides of the bet you made with the swaps we call them, synthetic cdo's what did you just say? Synthetic cdo's? That is fucking crazy! It's not! It's awesome! His face is starting to boil he looks like the bad guy from doom alright, let's say... You have a pool of 50 million in sub-prime loans how much money could be out there betting on it in your synthetic cdo's and swaps? Right now! Tonight! 50 million.. Hmm.. A billion dollars what? If the mortgage-bonds that Michael burry discovered were the match... How much bigger is the market for insuring mortgage bonds than for actual mortgages? About twenty times! If the mortgage bonds were the match... Then the cdo's were the kerosene soaked rags. Then the synthetic cdo was the atomic bomb with a drunk president holding his finger over the button it was at that moment in that dumb restaurant with that stupid look on his face that mark baum realized the whole world economy might collapse! And I know what you're thinking! What the fuck is a synthetic cdo? Well, here's Dr. thaler, father of behavioral economics, and Selena Gomez to explain! Ok, so here's how a synthetic cdo works! Let's say I bet ten million o a black Jack hand. Ten million, because this hand is to represent a single mortgage bond okay, Selena has a pretty good hand here! Showing eighteen, dealer showing seven that's a really good hand for Selena! Good odds, in fact her chances of winning this hand are eighty-seven percent so, my odds are good I'm on a winning streak everybody in this place wants to get in on the action how could I lose right? Now this is a classic error in basketball it's called the hot-hand-fallacy a player makes a bunch of shots in a row people are sure they're gonna make the next one people think, whatever is happening now is gonna continue to happen into the future! During the real-estate boom markets were going up and up! And people thought they would never go down! People who are watching and think that I won't lose will make a side-bet now this, is the first synthetic cdo I love Selena Gomez! I'll bet you fifteen million, she wins! And I'll give you 3-to-1 odds! 3-to-1 odds? Okay, I'll take that bet! Now! Somebody else is gonna wanna make a bet on the outcome of their bet! 15 million she wins! That will lead to synthetic cdo number two! Hey! I bet you 200 million, that lady in the glasses, wins that bet! She probably will win! So I want great pay-off! How about 20-to-1? Deal! And this will go on and on, with more and more synthetic cdo's and we can transform an original ten million dollar investment into billions of dollars you're ok? No! I actually feel pretty sick! So I'm going to leave you think I'm a parasite don't you mister baum? But apparently society values me, very much. En fin, let's do this! I'll tell you, how much I'm worth. You tell me how much you're worth! You are an incredibly... Big piece of shit! Short everything that guy has touched, I want half a billion more in swaps sure about that? The collateral calls could bankrupt you! Yeah! Where are you going? I am going to try to find moral redemption and to re-lactate hey, hey, hey! These are percentages of honey, I do think the economy might collapse! You've been saying that the system is broken for years mark why are you so shocked? It's more twisted, than I could have imagined! You love to be the virtuous one I'm a banker, I'm a part of it! You always have mark! Like you're untainted it changed me, it changed me! Into a person, who is not able to reach out to someone he was in pain, my brother was in real pain! I lost so much! There is no perfect way to help it sounds scary! So, stop! Trying to fix the world! He told me you're not a Saint, saints don't live on park Avenue! That he was having bad thoughts. Just feel the feelings, like the rest of us! My first response... Was, to offer him some money. I offered him fucking money! His face was so smashed! Michael? Michael? Yes, yes! Is everything ok? Yes honey! Sure? Yeah baby! All fine, hehe! To all investors, as you may know, our agreement allows me, to take extraordinary measures when markets aren't functioning properly I currently have reason to believe the mortgage-bond market is fraudulent so, in order to protect investors from this fraudulent market I've decided to restrict investor withdrawals until further notice. Sincerely, Dr. Michael j. Burry oh my god dude, we... Please stop changing the channel it's been driving me crazy! Fine! Just put the business-news on please. Thank you! And the s&p picked up three points Jesus! Mortgage meltdown continues sub-prime mortgage-lender new century financial once the industry-leader by the way, filed for bankruptcy the company immediately, ahem! Good time for my voice to go fired 3,200 workers the manufacturing-index also put out the month of march it's starting... A warning that the economic growth could slow the institute of sub-prime assets also reported a rise of prices I'm gonna call my mom! The principle source of the slowdown of economic growth time, and time, and time again have I bought them back from you Marcus we've know each-other for seventeen years she's got some lungs on her I'm impressed! Can't help but enjoy it. There's no fucking way, there's no fucking way, that the big banks are that stupid! Bye Kathy! Well? Kathy thinks it would be a good idea if we sold our shorts what else is new? And she said that Morgan-Stanley will buy them holy shit! What did you say? I told her we're not selling shit! Ah, if you need the.. Ehm, files for 2005 mister field's suit is very specific to files from the past year good, then get out! Say hi to Lawrence for me! And both do! You can't call me back for a week? I'm so sorry Mike! Goldman had a systems failure I lost a ton of messages! B of a said they had a power outage, and Morgan-Stanley said their server crashed! Huh! That's weird! Meh, I will, I will call it, improbable sue. Where do you have our position-mark? I think it's the same Mike what? Can you explain that to me please? H-h-h how can the value of an insurance-contract not be affected by the demise of the very thing it insures? They're independent markets, they're not always correlated! I know it sounds odd, but these are very complicated products! They are correlated! They're gonna lose their houses, they're gonna lose their jobs, they're gonna lose their p.. Will you listen to me! This is like... the end of capitalism! This is like the dark ages all-over again! I don't want to talk to dad! Okay, I love you too, save your money! She says I need to be on Xanax, and double my dose of Zoloft I asked bear-stearns to price our shorts they tell me the cdo's still haven't moved this is fucking insane! You realize that? These people are crooks and they should be in prison! Look at the theta-graphics, you can see that the cdo's are worth zero! So you know what they're doing huh? You know what they're doing right? Yeah! They're not loading them... They're selling their dogshit cdo's then they go to another bank and short the shit, while they fucking sold it! Whoo ho ho, let's go to the press man! This is a massive story! Who wouldn't publish it? Robert redford! Shorting the ones they were gonna buy I got it, I got it! I got it, I got it... And what am I supposed to do? Want me to write a piece called: "We're all fucked!" Yes! That's a perfect title! Right now, every bank in town is unloading these shit-bonds under un-suspecting customers and they won't devalue them until they get them off their books this level of criminality is unprecedented even on fucking wall-street! Jamie... This is me being honest here okay. It took me years to build my relationships on wall-street no bank or ratings-agency is gonna confirm a story like this just because it comes from two guys in a... Garage-band hedge-fund that thinks it's the apocalypse. Wow! I thought you were for real Casey you know, I have to say, I really did! Yeah Jamie, you try being for real with a three-year old and a wife getting her masters-degree I'm not gonna burn my reputation on your wild hunch wow! Thanks for coming guys, totally fucking awesome to see you! Yeah. Casey, I've always hated you because you were a prick in college and you are a prick today! Thanks Charlie! Still living with your mom? Charlie, come on! It's mark baum again. Call me! Sub-prime bonds fell off a cliff rumor has it default-numbers are huge! Who got their remittance-data early? I bet it's Goldman nah, fuck you very much! Jared! It's chaos down here, where are we? And Caesar wept, for there were no more worlds to conquer. Shane... Shane! Well... Nobody's buying cdo's and mortgage bonds anymore and everybody wants swaps, swaps are not he most popular product on the street that's good for us! Yes, and no. I heard from somebody, who heard from somebody no Alex. No... sorry! I'm betting kleeger over at Morgan is taking up some heavy losses in the bond-department your shit might be taking on water time to get our life-jacket and get out. Holy shit! I'm jacked I'm jacked! I'm jacked to the tits! Good! Do you feel it? No! What'd you hear tiny? It's happening everybody wants our swaps Kathy's office is looking for you! Singing a different tune now, aren't they? That's not good. Maybe later. No, no this isn't a joke you gotta start unwinding... Listening! Dr. burry? Yah! Deev woonsen, Goldman sachs listen, I've been reviewing your position I wanted to discuss your marks, make sure they're fair! Yeah, I, I, I thi, I think you mean.. That you've.. Secured a net-short position yourselves, so you're free to mark my swaps accurately for once because it's now in your interest to do so. Ehm... I'm not sure what you want me to say I think that... I think you've already said it. You tell Jeff at Goldman that I'm not transferring funds, this is bullshit! Okay, we'll talk later. Thank you... Thanks for coming so quickly mark yeah ehm... I know you've been hearing rumblings about some losses Morgan has suffered. Congratulations on what? Oh! Thanks. Ehm.. Having fun? Yes! He he! Tons!, ehm... I just wanted you to know that ehm... Yes, Morgan has suffered some losses, but our liquidity is strong, and there's no cause for concern! Would Benny kleeger be concerned? Because word on the street is he took some pretty heavy losses Kathy come on, we know each-other.. How, how?... How bad is this? Ok... Two years ago, Benny kleeger in Morgan's bond-department also started shorting sub-prime housing two million in triple-b's Benny is smarter than I thought! No, he's not smart at all! The premiums on the swaps ate into his desks profit to cover his triple-b shorts, he sold a lot of a- and double-a swaps as protection, a lot! He believed that there was no way, that they could be affected. Tell me Morgan-Stanley doesn't hold the contracts on these swaps holy shit all this time I've been trying to figure out whom I've been betting against. And it's Morgan-Stanley which is me... What's your exposure? Three billion? Please don't tell me it's more than four! I can't answer that! Yes you can answer that, because... I walk in here and people are crying in your hallway Kathy.. You bring me in to tell me everything is fine, and everything is not fine! What? What is happening? Long exposure is... Fifteen billion Jesus Christ, are you fucking kidding me?! -You kept saying defaults over eight percent were impossible! That there would be a million homeless oh my god! Yeah, but we have nothing to do with Morgan-Stanley yeah... just tell the bankruptcy-court Morgan fails, all our accounts go under bow and ship that's just crazy! Morgan makes a sucker's bet and we pay their fucking gambling debt? Short the bank's stocks! Wait.. Or we sell our swaps, when the market opens we get our bonuses, our investors get their profit we get... thirty cents on the dollar, not bad! We're three times up not if there's no market up to sell them in forget it, I'm not giving out any life-hooks mark, if Morgan goes under, we end up with nothing! Vinnie... Jesus, come on! I say, when we sell look I get that this is personal for you, but we have a fiduciary responsibility no, no we don't! Respons...? Nobody is acting responsible! Fuck responsibility! Are you kidding me? The assholes at the big banks, are gonna take.. You boys want menu's now? We're talking!.. Please! Excuse us! We are going to wait, and we are going to wait we are going to wait, until they feel the pain, until they start to bleed that is what I want yeah, but what about our clients, they've been trusting us with their savings. I say when we sell! This isn't about you! Hey, hey, hey! I say when we sell! Whatever you say mark dude, did you hear the news? Ok, so not only did two mortgage hedge-funds backed by bear-stearns go belly-up but now, there's a class-action lawsuit against bear holy shit! Let's go! Push, push! So? What? Bear could really collapse here? That's a risk we really shouldn't take! But eighty percent of our swaps is bear we lose everything! Hey sir! One second! That's my opinion! -Aw, we bought these fucking things, and we have no clue how to sell them I know, we have to get Ben to do it! I've been trying to call him, but he won't get back to me no, he's on vacation with his wife's family! They're in England! What?! Hello, Ben? Hey! Guys? Yeah, we're here, can you hear us? Guys?- We hear ya, yeah! I probably got cell-phone and wifi-service I'm trying to sell 200 million dollars worth of securities in a pub... Smells like sheep you can do this! I don't want to pressure you Ben, but if you don't pull this off, we lose everything! Ok, let's see what credit suisse's appetite is. This is brownfield fund, I'm wanting to unload my credit default swaps. Alright, what've you got? Twenty double-a tranches of abs cdo's eh yes.. But these eh... These are pretty bad absolutely, they're complete shit! What's your.. What's your? Basevalue is two-hundred and five million dollars alright, we could, we could go to forty no, we want at least a hundred million a hundred million? Who are you a drug-dealer or a banker? Cause if you're a banker you can fuck right off! I don't know if we can make a market, just give me your best price! Yeah, check! A hundred million worth, and aim higher! I think we're far apart look if you don't want to deal, just hang up. That's what I thought! Ninety million seventy! Eighty-five seventy-eight eightyfour! Seventy-eight eightyfour! It's Dr. burry looks like the collapse of the financial sector is imminent start to sell my position 2.3 billion sure, I'll hold! So I was right. I took a rash of shit for two years. But... I was right! And... Everyone was wrong! And yeah I got a bonus-cheque for it sue me! You know. It's a lot of money! I get it, I can feel you judging me. That's palpable but hey! I never said I was the hero of this story hey, hey babe! How are we looking? Ace... goi.. S-sorry? No, eighty million! Ok, so eighty million! Eighty million, eigthy million, that's good right? Eighty is great, no eighty is great, thank you, thank you so much! Most of them went to ubs you're very lucky! The largest bank in France froze it's customer's money-market accounts today this thing is hitting Europe! Greece and Iceland are finished Spain is teetering are you serious? Fuck! Ben call us when you get home! But hey, before you go... I'm just wondering... Uhm.. Why did you do this with us? You didn't have to, and eh.. You know, thank you, but, eh... Why? You guys said you wanted to get rich! Now you're rich! As the housing-markets and banks continues to hemorrhage, only one of the big shorts refused to sell. Mark baum so it was beyond perfect, when he was asked to speak at a conference opposite Bruce Miller famous bull-ish investor after he and mark had their debate Alan greenspan, one of the architects of the whole crisis, was scheduled to speak everyone in mark's office showed up, even invited friends! This... was the Ali versus foreman of the financial world realists versus the fools and if it seems almost too perfect... Trust me! This happened! Welcome everyone! Please... give a generous welcome to... Mister Bruce Miller... and mark baum strap yourself in! So as some of you may know, bear-stearns has just received a loan from j.P. Morgan of course we're gonna have to see how the markets react but that should lay to rest any concerns about the bank self! No, I take it, you have no plans to sell your two-hundred million in bear-stock no, as a matter of fact, when we're done here, I'll probably go buy some more! For the opposing view... Mister baum I gotta stand for this okay, hi! My firms thesis is pretty simple wall-street took a good idea: Lewis raneiri's mortgage-bonds and turned it into an atomic bomb of fraud and stupidity that's on it's way to decimating the world economy how do you really feel? I'm glad you still have a sense of humor! I wouldn't if I were you! Now, anyone who knows me, knows.. That I have no problem telling someone they're wrong. It's a disaster, it just says here, they got a liquidity-bravo but for the first time.. In my life.. Holy fuck! It's not so enjoyable we live in an era of fraud in America not just in banking, but in government education, religion food, even baseball what bothers me... Isn't that .. Fraud is not nice or that fraud... is mean it's that .. For fifteen thousand years fraud and short-sighted thinking have never ever worked not once, eventually Jesus you'll get caught we're at thirtyseven things go south! -It's fucking plummeting man, it's fucking plummeting! When the hell did we forget all that? I thought we were better than this, I really did and.. The fact that we're not, doesn't make me feel all-right and superior! It makes me feel... sad. Every time I fucking hit refresh it's dropping man -and hope it does goes down! And as fun as it is to watch.. Pompous dumb wall-streeters be wildly wrong and you are wrong sir! I just know that at the end of the day average people are going to be the ones, -that are going to have to pay for all of this. Because they always, always do! Thirtytwo? Shit! It's thirty-two yeah it's fucking tanked man that's my two cents, thank you! I'm gonna drop a deuce at deutsche does our bull have a response? Only that in the entire history of wall-street, no investment-bank has ever failed, unless caught in criminal activities. So, yes! I stand by my bear-stearns optimism. Mister Miller, I'm sorry! Quick question! From the time you guys started talking, bear-stearns' stock is falling more than thirty-eight percent would you still buy more? Yeah, sure! Ofcourse I'd buy more, why not? Baum! Jesus Christ! Oh no! That comcludes the first part of our presentation up next, we have the legendary, former, chairman of the fed, Alan greenspan! Folks! Employees of lehmann brothers today, -as the wall-street giant's stock went to zero! The collapse of the venerable New York bank follows a tumultuous few months of market volatility, and fear for the world economy... I gotta see inside how? Come on I left my phone in the office, I threw my pass out already, do you mind if I take your pass? Borrow it? I don't give a shit anymore, you can do what you want! Go directly to your transportation, do not talk to the press! -So that's it? After eighteen years! Go directly to your transportation, do not talk to the press! -I just leave? That's just fucking great, I can talk to whomever the hell I want! Do not talk to the press! Go directly to your transportation, do not talk to the hey look, you want to get a bit tonight? There's this ehm... This new Cuban place just opened at the lower east side, so I suppose we could.. Ah really? Yeah! You and I? Yeah and eh.. Other people that sounds nice! Yeah, I would like that, thank you very much! -Finally! Mark, hey! It's a bloodbath up here Morgan's stock has lost half its value, it's down to 23,10 it's in a free-fall decline, so I wanted to talk to you about pulling their money I mean... it's now or never mark! We gotta sell! Mark! Mark, do you hear me? Mailbox #1, you have fifteen messages. Mike I can't seem to get a hold of you, could you please call me at your earliest convenience? It's Jeff, I.. Eh.. You're buying stocks? The market is at an all-time low, this is crazy! I met my wife on match. Com my profile said that I'm a medical student with only one eye an awkward social manner, and 145 thousand dollars in student loans she wrote back... You're just what I've been looking for! She meant honest, so let me be honest... The housing-crisis represents the greatest financial opportunity making money is not what I thought it would be. This business... kills the part of life that is essential! The part, that has nothing to do with business for the past two years, my insides have felt, like they're eating themselves. All the people I respected, won't talk to me anymore except through lawyers. People... Want an authority to tell them how to value things, but they chose this authority not based on facts or... results they chose it because it seems authoritative... Or familiar! And... I'm not, and never have been... familiar so.. So I've come to the solemn realization that I must close down the fund sincerely, Michael j. Burry md. This isn't how I pictured it what do you think you'd find? I don't know grown-ups mark, are you there? Mark? Paulsson and bernanke just left the White House. There's going to be a bail-out well, they had to! Right? We paid for mortgages with collaterals they knew! Cash would have stopped coming out the ATM, they had to back-stop this they knew the tax-payers would bail them out, they weren't stupid, they just didn't care! Yeah, 'cause they're fucking crooks! But, at lest we're gonna see some of them go to jail. Right? We need to gonna have to break up the banks the party is over! I don't know, I don't know... I have a feeling, that in a few years, people are gonna do, what they always do when the economy tanks. They will be blaming immigrants and poor people. But mark was wrong! In the years that followed, hundreds of bankers and rating-agency's executives went to jail. The scc was completely overhauled and congress had no choice, but to break up the big banks and regulate the mortgage and derivative industries just kidding! Banks took the money the American people gave them and used it to pay themselves huge bonuses and lobby the congress to kill big reform and then they blamed immigrants and poor people and this time even teachers! And when all was said and done, only one single banker went to jail this poor schmuck! Kareem serageldin from credit suisse he hit a few billion in mortgage-bond losses something most of the big banks did on a good day during the crisis mark, can we sell now? I mean the fund will almost make a billion dollars you'll clear two-hundred mill mark! You know... once we sell.. We'll be just like the rest of them you know that! No we're not, we're not the bad guys here! We didn't defraud the American people and prey on their dreams of owning a home like they did! Now we get to kick em in the teeth! A billion dollars that's right! But we gotta close out our position, or it could be zero I- I-it's now or never, mark okay. Sell it all! Annagram Want to do another movie? makes it a little less tedious... Bye now! Hope you enjoyed the movie! |
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